Million Dollar Musings: Wednesday, June 7
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday to you, and an extra Happy Wednesday to you for the non-split slate day! Woo-hoo! We’ve had crazy busy Wednesdays all season, but today, we just get one main slate at the usual start time of 7:05pm ET.
At first glance, it looks to have the same top two offenses as yesterday with the Dodgers and Giants, with a wider spread of viable pitching options, although lacking clarity up top. Be sure to keep an eye on the afternoon weather report, as there is at least some risk in the Coors Field game. For now, we’ll just assume everything plays.
Let’s jump on in and start sorting through some of the MLB DFS picks for this 10-game slate.
Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This is a kind of a perplexing pitching slate. We’ve got two pitchers who have been top-of-the-line aces for many years, both of whom have struggled this season but have also begun showing signs of life. We then have an ace who has been more consistent but is going into Coors Field. We then find a group of five guys (mmm, Five Guys!) who are all pretty good pitchers but all in tougher matchups than we’d like. Below that, we have a couple of very interesting punt options with no sample size, if you’re feeling a little adventurous. I’ll sort them into those three buckets and see if we can find some favorites.
A TRIO OF SOMETHING LIKE ACES, OR USED TO BE ACES, OR STILL ARE ACES?
Corbin Burnes vs. Orioles – 22.8% K, 9.7% BB, 3.75 ERA, 4.44 SIERA
Max Scherzer at Braves – 25.3% K, 7.4% BB, 3.21 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Logan Webb at Rockies – 26.5% K, 4.9% BB, 2.85 ERA, 3.03 SIERA
For Corbin Burnes, the strikeouts and pitch count have perked up a little recently, but the control is still lagging far behind his usual level, and he’s still yet to top 8 strikeouts in any start this season. Of course, 8 strikeouts is plenty, but that is just a high-water mark, not any kind of norm. In 12 starts this year, he has 7-8 strikeouts in five of them, while the other seven starts have all come with 5 strikeouts or fewer. Meanwhile, he’s walked multiple batters in five of his last six starts. He’s still a decent enough DFS pitcher, but there is nothing here implying that he’s going to return to ace-dom.
On the other hand, Max Scherzer is absolutely showing signs of returning to ace-dom, if he’s not already there. His last two starts have come with a 17:1 K:BB ratio and just 2 runs in 14 innings. And even going back a couple starts past that, we’ve seen consistent control as the strikeouts and pitch count rise. I’m firmly on the side of Scherzer for pure talent at this point, and if you were to put Burnes and Scherzer in the same matchup at the same salary, I’d go with Scherzer every time.
The Braves are certainly a much better offense than the Orioles, but in terms of strikeouts, the edge goes slightly to Scherzer. Their salaries are close, but Scherzer is cheaper, and officially, he is my SP1 here. I certainly don’t trust him enough against Atlanta to be anywhere near an all-in situation, but he is at the top of my list. I wouldn’t argue with you even for a second if you simply prefer Burnes in the safer matchup; I’m just more hopeful that Scherzer is closer to full strength.
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