Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Wednesday 5/28

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-05-28 15:29:50 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Wednesday! We have a split slate day with a 5-game early slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET, and then an evening slate that is quite different between the sites and very sketchy looking in terms of weather.

In theory, FD has an 8-game slate starting at 5:35 p.m. ET. But in reality, one of those games is now starting at 12:10 p.m. ET, so that can’t possibly be on a 5:35 p.m. ET slate, right? We’ll say it can’t! Meanwhile, DK is starting later than usual at 7:40 p.m. ET, but that slate avoids most of the weather concerns.

In looking at the MLB weather page, I am not going to include ATL/PHI in the analysis for tonight, and both ST/BAL and CIN/KCR have concerns that will need to be monitored throughout the day.

If the mess of differing slates and weather doesn’t give you the heebie jeebies, how do you feel when I tell you that the early slate on DK has 1-2 innings of Jakob Junis priced ahead of the best pitcher in our lifetime? I’m going to write about this weird day, and then I’m going to Circle K, because strange things are afoot!

And don’t forget to check out our MLB DFS lineup optimizer for expert tags and analysis on the early slate.

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Wednesday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

It’s an average-looking pitching slate with two good but non-elite starters up top and a third great real-life, average DFS pitcher rounding out the top tier. The wildest thing to see is a $7,000 salary for Clayton Kershaw, but at this point, it’s possible he’s only a $7,000 pitcher. That is, as they say, bananas!

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Pablo Lopez at Rays – 26.6% K, 4.4% BB, 2.31 ERA, 3.09 SIERA
• Freddy Peralta vs. Red Sox – 24.2% K, 9.3% BB, 2.55 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
• Drew Rasmussen vs. Twins – 21.3% K, 5.9% BB, 2.60 ERA, 3.62 SIERA

These are three good pitchers, but certainly not elite or can’t-miss types of aces. Freddy Peralta has just not shown his usual upside this season while still showing his usual inefficiency. He has only topped 6 strikeouts one time in his last 9 starts, and he’s needed every bit of his low BABIP to survive. With a 46.5% fly ball rate, unless the strikeouts suddenly surge back, this is going to come down to HR/FB%. I guess when you factor the ballpark in, I’d say he has a better matchup than Pablo Lopez, so he’s probably the SP1, but I just don’t love this at all. I’m also assuming he’s the heavy chalk, and in my eyes, he doesn’t deserve it.

Pablo Lopez has been far more consistent than Peralta, and while both have good early-season ERAs, with fortunate batted ball numbers, I will always side with better control if the strikeouts are similar. And in this case, they are more than similar, with a slight lean to Lopez. The strikeout and power numbers for their opponents are virtually identical as well, so if I’m spending up, Lopez is my SP1.

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