MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, May 18
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, May 18th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Very early and small main slate today, with four games starting at 12:35PM EST. We have some great young arms in Eury Perez, Taj Bradley, and Logan Allen going today, along with some older guys including the ace of the slate, Dylan Cease.
Let’s get right in to it with some news, notes, and MLB DFS picks for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- LAA/BAL and CLE/CHW are the best hitting conditions of the slate, with both games in the mid to high 60s. TB/NYM will be in the low 60s with a 10mph cross breeze, and WSH/MIA is our lone dome game.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Ward is getting a day off for the Angels, so Mickey Moniak will hit leadoff and is a strong value option on both sites today. We’ll also see Livan Soto get a start with Urshela getting a breather.
- Mullins will get a day off for Baltimore, so Hays will hit leadoff and McKenna will play CF and hit sixth.
- Joey Meneses is still on the paternity list, so Jake Alu will be in the lineup for him. Corey Dickerson has moved up to cleanup after homering yesterday, and Luis Garcia will move to leadoff with Thomas now hitting second.
- Hampson and Berti are getting days off, so Jean Segura will hit leadoff for Miami.
- Yandy Diaz remains out for Tampa, so Josh Lowe will hit leadoff and Raley will play 1B. Franco is getting a day off so Arozarena will move up to second in the order and Walls will handle SS.
- Marte, Vientos, Canha, and Alvarez will get breathers today in place of Pham, Vogelbach, Escobar, and Perez.
- Jose Ramirez remains on the bereavement list so Rocchio will start at 3B today. Josh Naylor remains out as well so Arias will start at 1B.
- Grandal is starting at DH today even after leaving early yesterday, while Zavala will start at catcher. Jake Marisnick is getting a start against a lefty with Sheets out. Moncada is getting a breather so Burger will play 3B and hit cleanup.
- Baltimore is my top stack this morning, as they’re the only team with a projected run total above 4.5 on this slate. TB and MIA are my next favorite stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- I think Dylan Cease ($9,800) has to be the top cash game SP option today, as he’s not even the most expensive SP on the board but probably has the safest floor and highest ceiling of the slate. He’d also get a bump if Naylor remains out, and I already like his matchup more with Jose Ramirez out of the CLE lineup. Eury Perez ($8,500) would be my next target for cash games if you need the salary savings, as he draws a nice matchup with Washington, and did get to 88 pitches in his debut last start. Bradley and Allen are other SPs with big upside that should be in your GPP pool.
- I’m starting with BAL for cash game bats, as they are full of value with no one above $3.1k in their lineup. Rutschman ($3,100), Santander ($3,000), Mountcastle ($3,000), Hays ($2,700), and Mateo ($3,000) are all top options today and I’m expecting most cash game lineups to have a full or close to a full BAL stack in it against the lefty Anderson. I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Mountcastle on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo offer.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Miami also has some nice value options in Segura ($2,200), Cooper ($2,700), Arraez ($2,800), and Soler ($3,300), and with the second highest projected run total of the slate I like getting a at least a couple of their bats in your main build.
- Some other cheap mini stacks I like today include the trio of Ramirez ($3,000), B. Lowe ($2,900), and Paredes ($3,000) from the Rays, along with Anderson ($2,800), Vaughn ($3,000), and Burger ($2,900) from the White Sox. Mickey Moniak ($2,000) is now in play for value as well hitting leadoff for LAA.
- Cease ($9,700) is the most expensive SP on DK but still a bit too cheap for his upside, and I love pairing him with Eury Perez ($7,700) who comes at a nice $800 discount to FD. Bradley ($9,100) and Allen ($8,600) remain favorite GPP options.
- I’m expecting James McCann ($2,500) to either catch or DH, and he is a top value option today along with Thaiss ($2,600) at the C spot. The other Orioles bats are priced up compared to FD, but I still like the prices of Mountcastle ($4,500), Hays ($4,200), and for much cheaper Joey Ortiz ($2,600).
- Jean Segura ($2,800), Joey Wendle ($2,300), and Bryan De La Cruz ($3,400) are great p/$ OF options for cheap Miami exposure.
- Ramirez ($3,900) and Paredes ($3,400) are my top Rays value options, and other cheap bats I like today include Brett Baty ($3,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,300), Vaughn ($2,900), Jake Burger ($2,500), and Mickey Moniak ($2,700).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!