Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (April 21)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Fiiine I’ll move on from the Brad Keller thing. At least publicly.
Baltimore’s Power Bats vs. Michael Lorenzen Small Sample
Lorenzen has only made one start for Detroit, but it had all the makings of a combustible profile. The Giants tagged him a couple of dingers and 6 ER over four innings, supported by a 21.4% barrel rate and a 13-degree average launch angle. Again, only one start, but it’s not like Lorenzen has been a reliable starter in recent years.
Even with Camden Yards playing pitcher-friendly these days, I’m still interested in stacking the Orioles. Eight guys in their projected starting lineup have above-average hard-hit rates, and six have fly ball rates over 34% vs. RHPs.
Led by the foursome of Mullins/Rutschman/Mountcastle/Santander, Baltimore is top 10 in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrels per plate appearance this season.
SUMMARY: Projected ownership isn’t out of hand (outside of Santander on FanDuel), so I love this as a core stack tonight. It’ll be a bit pricey, but fitting 3-4 of these bats shouldn’t be too tough as long as you shop in the sub-$10K pitcher pool.
Also taking the Baltimore team total o4.5 on FanDuel (-128) and I’ll sprinkle on HR props for Mountcastle (+420) and Rutschman (+630).
Hunter Brown’s Improving Control vs. Atlanta’s Dangerous Lineup
Brown’s refinement as a pitcher is evident in his control improvements at each level.
- Single A – 6.8 BB/9, 1.83 K:BB
- Double A – 5.3 BB/9, 2.62 K:BB
- Triple A – 3.8 BB/9, 2.86 K:BB
- MLB – 3.0 BB/9, 3.00 K:BB
Even just this season, he opened with three walks in his first start, trimmed it down to two in his second outing and then to a single BB last weekend (7 scoreless innings vs Texas).
Atlanta is certainly not a team we generally target with SPs, as they’re top 10 in OPS, ISO and wOBA against righties. However, tonight’s projected lineup has eight hitters with strikeout rates above 21% and only two guys with walk rates above 9%.
SUMMARY: The cost is prohibitive on DraftKings (third most-expensive SP) but Brown makes sense as a tournament play on FanDuel with virtually no projected ownership. His control improvements along with a middling starter on the other side (Bryce Elder) give him a solid chance at a quality start + win.
Plate Discipline of the Mets vs. Anthony DeSclafani Efficiency
The Mets are far and away the league leaders in K:BB vs. RHPs at 0.9. The next-closest team (Cleveland) is at 0.6. Basically a Juan Soto-sized plate discipline gap.
DeSclafani is off to a nice start (1.42 ERA over three games), and he’s done it with remarkable efficiency. 6+ innings in all three starts while averaging just 89 pitches, largely due to ZERO walks and a career-high 55.8% groundball rate.
Something has to give here. If the Mets can work DeSclafani early, they can get a healthy dose of a weak San Francisco bullpen (5.40 ERA). If not, DeSclafani likely cruises to another strong outing.
SUMMARY: Site-specific approach here. DeSclafani is $10.4K on FanDuel, but he’s outside the top 10 in terms of price on DraftKings. Worth a sprinkle if you’re playing multiple lineups.
The Mets are pretty cheap on FanDuel outside of Lindor and Alonso. Nimmo/McNeil/Marte + one of the expensive bats could be the late-night hammer that wins tournaments.