Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (May 5)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
I love the Wander Franco play, and not just for the play itself (so cool). It’s the ideal video clip to expose the obnoxious baseball “purists.” They’ve been gritting their teeth through the pitch clock and the shift rules, but their true colors are coming out.
Bailey Ober’s Approach vs. Cleveland’s Approach
Ober is like the pitching version of the Guardians’ offensive philosophy. He’s below-average at getting strikeouts and whiffs but limits hard contact. Cleveland is all about making contact, even if it’s weak contact (and it often is).
Through two starts, Ober has allowed just one barreled ball and is 91st percentile in hard-hit rate. He’s uncharacteristically walked five over 11.1 innings, but he’s been a 5% or less BB% guy in his first two MLB seasons.
The Guardians had the lowest K% vs. RHPs last season (17.3%) by a wide margin (the next-closest was 19.6%). They’re at 19.7% right now, good for 5th in the league. Cleveland is also 28th in hard-hit rate and dead last in barrels per plate appearance.
SUMMARY: It’s a low(ish) ceiling, excellent floor spot for Ober. He’s a strong option if you’re trying to save some salary, particularly on FanDuel (might just find the extra $1K for Fried on DraftKings). Grabbing the Twins on the first five innings moneyline as well (-124 on FanDuel).
Kodai Senga’s Control vs. Colorado’s Impatience
Senga’s shown solid strikeout skills and has three wins through five starts, but free passes have been a major problem. He’s walked 18 in 26 innings and has at least three BBs in every start. It’s wrecked his pitch counts, so he’s made it through six innings just once.
Not only are the Rockies vulnerable on the road, especially right after a series in Coors Field, but they also struggle to draw walks. Colorado is 24th in BB% and K:BB vs. RHPs.
SUMMARY: Senga is priced with the aces, but he has ace upside in this spot. He doesn’t offer the safety of the Wheeler/Castillo/Kershaw group, but he has the best matchup.
A couple of our friends over at ScoresAndOdds already locked in the over on Senga’s strikeout prop.
Baltimore’s Big Righties vs. Max Fried’s Run Prevention
Fried has allowed one run all season. One! And it was a month ago.
Guys with 0.45 ERAs aren’t typically pitchers we like to target, but the Orioles are pounding lefties. Baltimore is 4th or better in OPS, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHPs.
It’s not a full-stack situation, and I like Fried’s price on DraftKings. But he’s going to be popular, and some of these right-handed Orioles make sense as one-off plays.
SUMMARY: Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander both have ISOs over .200 against lefties. At virtually zero projected ownership, I like them as power bats to fill out lineups.