Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (August 22)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
I was on board with the Angels going all in. We don’t see it enough in baseball. Aaand we might never see it again with the way things have gone. They’re 5-13 in August and nine games back from the final Wild Card spot. At least Mike Trout is coming back, maybe he’ll rescue them.
Graham Ashcraft’s Current Run vs. Fallen Angels
Ashcraft’s 4.89 ERA is identical to his 2022 mark and is right in line with his 5.06 xERA. But man, it’s been a ride to get there. He had a 2.10 ERA in April, a 9.66 ERA from May-June, and now a 2.28 ERA from July-August.
Ashcraft hasn’t changed much in his profile and sits at an ugly 16.4% K% for the season, but he’s done a nice job feasting on good matchups lately. His opponents since the start of July: Nationals, Brewers, Giants, Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Marlins, Guardians. Outside of the Dodgers, every team is 18th or worse in wRC+ vs. RHPs this season.
The Angels have solid full season numbers, but they’ve been dreadful in August. L.A. is 29th in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs. RHPs this month. They’re dead last in K/BB.
SUMMARY: Ashcraft’s skills are borderline, it’s the matchup that makes him a solid play tonight. He’s a high-floor option providing $2K+ in savings from the aces.
Grabbed Cincinnati on the first five spread as well. Not sure why they’re underdogs in this spot.
Jesus Luzardo Hitting the Wall vs. San Diego’s Lefty Mashers
It’s always tough to gauge when (or if) young pitchers will falter once they reach a career-high in innings. Luzardo is now 25 IP beyond his previous high (112 innings in 2022), and his performance has fallen off a cliff.
Luzardo has been blasted for 20 ER over his last four starts, including 8 HRs. He only allowed 5 HRs from June-July. He’s had some difficult matchups (Astros and Rangers) in that stretch, but he’s getting more of the same tonight.
San Diego has crushed lefties all season. They’re top five in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The Padres’ projected lineup has a massive .203 ISO vs. LHPs.
SUMMARY: This is my favorite low-owned stack on the slate. Luzardo has enough name recognition to keep ownership down, but he isn’t the same guy right now. Trying to jam in the first four guys in the lineup plus cheapies like Sanchez and Cooper where necessary.
Grayson Rodriguez Getting Ahead vs. Toronto With Bo Bichette
Rodriguez hadn’t completed six innings prior to his late May demotion, but he’s gone 6+ in three of his six starts since returning. His biggest adjustment has been getting ahead in the count. After having just a 54.5% first-strike rate through his first 10 starts, Rodriguez is at 72.3% in this recent six-start run. That’s huge for efficiency.
The strikeouts haven’t been there, and that likely caps Rodriguez’ upside right now, but working deeper into games is a reasonable tradeoff.
Toronto has struggled against RHPs in August, which coincided with Bichette hitting the IL with a knee injury. The Blue Jays are 26th in wRC+ vs. RHPs this month. Bichette returned over the weekend and Toronto through up 14 runs over two games against Cincinnati.
SUMMARY: The matchup gives me some hesitation, and I’ll prioritize Ashcraft over Rodriguez on FanDuel. But on DraftKings, it’s hard to pass up Rodriguez at $6.1K. That just seems like a mispricing.