MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, April 12th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
To be clear, we can legitimately stack every damn team on this slate. In this space, we’ll merely touch upon a few options, but the logic applied to the teams noted below can apply to many on the slate. These are just the relatively top stacks, but what separates the Reds from the Astros probably isn’t much. What separates the Cubs from the Rangers probably isn’t much.
I’m a mid-stakes guy who plays 5 lineups at the most, but I’m enticed to play cheap MME tonight because 150 lineups should be pretty easy to make, playing whomever we want. Practice good bankroll management. If you’re a single-entry or mid-stakes player who wants to dabble in MME, this is a great slate. Just keep it cheap and insignificant.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, April 12th
CHALK STACKS
Reds at Chris Flexen
Blue Jays vs. Ryan Feltner
The Reds are the only team on the slate with an implied total over 5 runs (5.39). They face Chris Flexen, who has allowed the most HR/9 on the slate of pitchers with at least 100 IP (2.07). Guaranteed Rate is already a great place for home runs, and the winds are forecasted to blow straight out at 15-20 MPH.
The math checks out.
Elly De La Cruz is the first guy who pops out, with his power/speed combination. He doesn’t need multiple homers to break a slate. His Achilles’ heel is the strikeout, and Flexen only has a 20% K rate against lefties. We should always love Elly in these high-contact spots where he can cause chaos every time he steps out there.
After him, we chase the power. Big time. Will Benson hitting 2nd with his 11.9% barrel rate against RHP; Christian Encarnacion-Strand with his 11.4% barrel rate and team-leading 31.4% fly-ball rate and 60% hard-hit rate (min. 200 PAs); Nick Martini and his 12.7% barrel rate with the 33.3% fly-ball rate in 89 PAs. All great plays. Getting the ball in the air might be all players will need to smash in this game.
Ryan Feltner isn’t a bad pitcher. He has some strikeout stuff that makes him get away with a ton of walks, but this Blue Jays bunch doesn’t strike out. The problem is that the Jays’ talent hasn’t translated into power-packed results. They, the Braves, and the Astros are all implied at over 4.9 runs, and the Jays will the be most popular, so we should take note of them here.
The results, though. Woof.
If I asked you how many Jays have a barrel rate over 9% against RHP, would you guess that it’s just one? Well, it’s just one: Vladimir Guerrero (12.2%). The Jays are a fine stack at low projected ownership against pitchers who struggle with power prevention, but Feltner has only allowed a 5.7% barrel rate, and the Jays could be pretty chalky today. So I’m out.
PIVOT STACKS
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