MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, August 16th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Friday! The schedule is a weird one tonight, as DraftKings and FanDuel have taken different paths. We’re looking at a 13-game slate on FanDuel starting at 6:40 PM ET, while DK is rolling with an 8-gamer starting at 7:05 PM ET. As usual, I’ll be focusing on stacks we can play on both sites in this article.
This is another docket that looks loaded on the hitting side. We’ve got the Padres in Coors Field, while teams like the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, Mets, and Phillies (FD only) all boast fairly high implied run totals. Ownership figures to congregate around a few obvious pitching options too, so we’ll have to find ways to get different in GPPs.
Let’s jump right in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, August 16th
CHALKY STACK
Padres at Cal Quantrill
On a slate with several high implied run totals, the highest predictably belongs to the Padres. San Diego is coming in around 6.5 implied runs as they head to Denver for a date with Cal Quantrill and the Rockies.
Quantrill has pitched pretty well compared to most of the Rockies’ starters, with a 4.56 ERA through 23 starts. The right-hander has a ground-ball lean (44.1%), and he’s done a fine job of avoiding barrels (6.6%). He isn’t a pitcher who’ll be missing bats (17.4% K%), while the Padres are a low-strikeout bunch to begin with.
Quantrill’s been pretty splits-neutral. Lefties have a .342 wOBA, 8 homers, and a 44% ground-ball rate against him. Righties are at a .344 wOBA with 9 homers and a 44% ground-ball rate. He also has an identical 17.4% K rate to both sides. So, we don’t have to be concerned with handedness when it comes to stacking San Diego. Their likely ownership is really the only potential drawback in GPPs.
Just 3 Padres in the projected lineup have double-digit barrel rates against RHP. Jake Cronenworth (11.6%) leads the pack, followed by Kyle Higashioka (10.7%) and Jackson Merrill (10.3%). Manny Machado (9.4%) isn’t far off the pace thanks to an extended recent hot streak at the plate, while Jurickson Profar (8.7%) has been an unexpected breakout star. Even veterans Xander Bogaerts (.390 wOBA) and David Peralta (.394 wOBA, .273 ISO) have been raking against RHP over the past 30 days.
The Pads would be fairly popular even if this game were taking place in San Diego. Because it’s in Coors though, they’ll be the chalkiest stack on the slate. The Padres are pulling around 15.5% projected stack ownership on DraftKings, while they’re in the 12% pOWN% range on FanDuel. Their optimal rates are lagging behind though, at around 8% on DK and 5% on FD.
Stacking the Padres along with the likes of Spencer Arrighetti and/or Sean Manaea figures to be a very popular build. Taking different routes on the pitching side or going way off the board with your secondary stack is one way to zig where the rest of the field is zagging.
PIVOT STACK
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