MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, July 5th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This a stacked pitching slate relative to what we’ve normally had in 2024. The gut reaction is probably to take a stand on a few stacks and cycle pitchers around. I think this might be wrong. Hitting still has more variance than pitching, for one. Two, the prices on pitching will make it very difficult to have a lot of Coors bats without a lot of bad, cheap pitching. I think I want some bad, cheap pitching to get in more Coors stacks and other high-dollar stacks, as we’ll discuss in this space.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, July 5th
CHALK STACK
Royals at Kyle Freeland
The Royals will be the most-owned team on the slate in Coors Field against Kyle Freeland, but the pitching dynamic on this slate makes it very hard to find them in full stacks with good pitching, so they could go under-owned. At first glance, we wish the Royals were more affordable, but I love that they’re not because their prices are keeping pOWN% down. If the Royals were normally priced, they’d be ~25% owned and would cost us too many lineups to get overweight on the field.
Freeland is a typical bad Colorado pitcher. He allows a near-average 8.3% barrel rate (9% to righties) but has a near-MLB high 84.2% contact rate, so there are a high quantity of balls hit hard and well against him. This is all we need to hear to play every Royal in our stacks, starting with these higher barrel rates against lefties:
Freddy Fermin, 11.8%
Bobby Witt, 11.3%
Dairon Blanco, 10.9%
Salvador Perez, 8.4%
Add the history of lefty-mashing from Hunter Renfroe, the mild power of Nick Loftin, and the high contact of Maikel Garcia, and this confirms that everyone is in play. Vinnie Pasquantino has no power against lefties, but Freeland isn’t pitching the complete game. Garrett Hampson probably cracks the lineup over lefty Michael Massey, but he’s also in play simply because everyone else is.
Fermin and Blanco make a lot of things work, but we still need to find affordable pitching on DK to play this full stack, and the field doesn’t wanna play pitchers under $8,000 — again — which will make the Royals under-owned. For this, they’re still in my single-entry pool, I will be playing a good amount of them in smaller fields, and I’ll be overweight on them in the 20 lineups I play in larger fields.
VALUE STACKS
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