MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, June 7th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There’s enough cheap pitching on this slate to play whomever we want, almost however we want. Ownership is projected to coagulate at the top. Instead of one or two chalky stacks, we’re projecting three to pretty much cap each other, followed by a modest middle tier. But in this space, there are two drastically under-owned teams on which we can triple the field that we’ll discuss.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, June 7th
CHALKY STACKS
Astros at Griffin Canning
Blue Jays at Hogan Harris
Mariners at Daniel Lynch
The Astros, Blue Jays, and Mariners are currently populating the 10-13% of pOWN range. It looks like anything outside of them will be contrarian and that none will run away with mega-chalky actual ownership in any format.
The Astros are in the best spot on the slate against Griffin Canning in Angel Stadium, a sneaky-good home run ballpark. Canning has struggled to miss bats all season. He has just a 16.3% K rate with just a 21.7% whiff rate to start 2024. Going back to include 2023, he has allowed a 9.5% barrel rate on a 49.8% hard-hit rate and 31.2% fly-ball rate.
Without Kyle Tucker projected in the lineup, the Astros have a near-average 7.7% barrel rate, but they make such a high frequency of contact that the actualized power can come in high quantity. Yordan Alvarez is in a nut spot with his team-leading 17.5% barrel rate, 39.6% fly-ball rate, and 59.2% hard-hit rate against righties. Yainer Diaz is the next bat I feel that we should have to have with his 9.7% barrel rate and 49.9% hard-hit rate against righties. After those two, we can just play whomever we want.
The Astros are a team that doesn’t full-stack in the sexy ways they used to. I can’t tell just yet if we full-stack or fade because the pOWN% is so jumbled at the top. If the Astros gain steam in pOWN%, we shouldn’t be mini-stacking. If the Astros, Jays, and Mariners stay tight with each other or the Jays and Mariners gain steam, Astros mini-stacks become an option. As of now, I only wanna play Astros as full stacks because I think the pOWN% is too conservative at the moment. Especially for single entry and smaller fields.
The Jays are interesting in that they’re heavily right-handed and facing a pitcher who struggles with righty power. Hogan Harris isn’t just allowing a 9.3% barrel rate to righties; it’s actualized to a .218 ISO on a 53% hard-hit rate. What prevents the Jays from being autoplay is that there are only 4 bats in this lineup that can consistently get the ball in the air, and this game is in Oakland, where homers go to die.
The 4 bats with ~30%+ fly-ball rates against lefties are:
Davis Schneider, 45.6%
Danny Jansen, 36.2%
Justin Turner, 32.7%
George Springer, 29.9%
The 4 above-average barrel rates against righties are Schneider (28.1%), Turner (12.2%), Jansen (11.2%), and Bo Bichette (9.2%). So the core is pretty clear with the Jays of Schneider, Jansen, Turner, Springer, and Bichette. If you want to risk it with Vladimir Guerrero, we can, but his 59% hard-hit rate is useless so often due to his 53.3% ground-ball rate and 15.6% fly-ball rate against lefties.
If you’ve read my stuff at all over the last two years, you’ve seen me hate on the Jays a lot because their power is overrated; the results are not matching the scouts’ eyes. I like the Jays in a projection vacuum tonight, but I refuse to play chalky Jays in a pitcher-friendly park. You’re completely allowed to stack the top 6 in the order however you want with some enthusiasm. I just like the Astros a lot more tonight with some pivots that we’ll discuss later in this space.
Speaking of not wanting to play a chalky lineup, I’m also curbing my enthusiasm about the Mariners. Don’t get me wrong. Daniel Lynch is bad. Real bad. Maybe the worst pitcher on the slate, and it’s gonna be hot (~87 degrees) at first pitch with enough humidity to start a storm later in the evening.
(Stay tuned to Kevin Roth and his weather report, as all of the bats in this game are gonna be in play.)
If the weather caps the Mariners’ ownership in this ~10% range, I’m interested in playing them in smaller-field GPPs, but I’m not absorbing Mariners chalk in single entry. That feels a bit like shooting myself in the foot. Their enormous K rates make the play too volatile.
That said, Lynch has a slate-worst 5.09 SIERA with 1.54 HR/9 allowed. His fly-ball rate is 33.3% and his barrel rate allowed is 8.7% — 9.6% to righties. With the hitting-friendly weather in K.C., we should feel great about the power potential that the M’s bring to the table. Here are the high barrel rates against lefties from which we have to choose:
Dylan Moore, 16.1%
Julio Rodriguez, 12.3%
Cal Raleigh, 12%
After them, we can double-dip at catcher on FanDuel with Mitch Garver and his 8.3% barrel rate, play the speed of J.P Crawford at the top of the order, or punt at 2B with the speed of Ryan Bliss. Lynch doesn’t walk a lot of batters, but he doesn’t miss bats, so there should be a lot of balls in play in a great park for extra-base hits, allowing for this speed to flourish.
I will have Jays and Mariners exposure in my five lineups, but the Astros are the only chalky team I’m considering for single entry because the lineup hits the ball harder more often, and the ballpark is better for the homers we’ll need to break the slate. In MME, we should be somewhat overweight on Astros full stacks, but we can go underweight or even with the field on Jays and M’s because of their wide ranges of outcomes — the Jays with the ground-ball rates and the Mariners with the strikeouts.
PIVOT STACKS
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