MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, July 22nd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a 9-game main slate for Monday as the second half of the baseball season rolls along. Outside of the Red Sox traveling to Coors Field, nothing really stands out on this slate. In fact, no other team has an implied run total above 5.0 runs despite being in the midst of the dog days of summer.
Let’s dive in and see if we can find anything to like.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, July 22nd
CHALKY STACK
Red Sox at Austin Gomber
Boston stands alone as the clear top offense as they travel to Denver to take on the Rockies. Their implied run total of nearly 6 runs is the best on the slate by over a full run. They get a matchup against lefty Austin Gomber, who owns an uninspiring 4.61 ERA. The strikeouts are well below average at just 16%, and he has allowed a lofty 1.63 HR/9 and 9.8% barrel rate. The biggest obstacle is the Red Sox have not been great against left-handed pitching. Their 95 wRC+ ranks just 21st, and they have struck out at the highest rate (29.4%) in the league against lefties. We can look past that since Gomber is attackable enough, given the low strikeouts and power prevention problems.
The Rockies bullpen is another reason to love the Red Sox, as they own the highest SIERA (4.41) in the league. Their 18.7% strikeout rate is the lowest in the league, and their 10.5% walk rate is the 6th highest.
Gomber has actually allowed more power to lefties since the beginning of last season, but Tyler O’Neill is still the top hitter on the slate. He has destroyed left-handed pitching this season with a .308 ISO and 17.4% barrel rate.
Rafael Devers has fared well in lefty-lefty matchups in his career, but he has not been elite against them this season. Given Gomber’s reverse power splits and the likelihood of a couple of plate appearances against the league’s worst bullpen, Devers is still well worth the price.
Jarren Duran is a tougher sell, as his fantasy-friendly power-speed combination against righties becomes a speed-only profile against lefties. He is a spend-up-to-be-contrarian option that can help to differentiate Red Sox stacks.
Rob Refsnyder is likely to hit leadoff and has been excellent against lefties, with a .186 ISO and an elite 14.6% barrel rate.
Connor Wong is an excellent option at the catcher position given his mid-range price tag and premium lineup spot.
Jamie Westbrook and Romy Gonzalez can be used as salary-saving options, but be aware of the pinch-hit risk. Westbrook, in particular, comes with a slate-leading 63% pinch-hit risk, according to THE BAT.
Boston is likely to be the highest-owned stack by a sizable margin, but their optimal rates exceed projected ownership on both sites. Ownership is likely to condense around them in small-field and single-entry tournaments, so be mindful of differentiation if using them in those formats.
PIVOT STACK
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