MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, May 13th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a huge 12-game slate on both sites. No single team has an implied team total above 5 runs, and no single stack is projected for double-digit ownership in our Top Stacks tool. There are many different ways to go with the 24 offenses available, but let’s attempt to sort through them and find the teams most likely to score us some runs.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, May 13th
CHALK STACKS
Padres vs. Dakota Hudson
Astros vs. Ross Stripling
Slate context is important, and there really aren’t any stacks I would consider to be chalk on this massive slate. I do believe the Padres and Astros will be the most popular teams, but there is not enough projected ownership to push me off of them if I was intent on playing them.
The Padres get a matchup with Dakota Hudson, who owns one of the lowest strikeout rates (12.6%) of any starting pitcher in baseball. His best skill is his ability to keep the ball on the ground (53.7% ground-ball rate), so our primary targets would ideally be those with a fly-ball profile. Hudson has allowed a .150 ISO, 8% barrels, and 44.2% hard contact. The hard contact numbers are elevated, but he has done okay limiting power and has allowed just 0.94 HR/9. Hudson’s lack of strikeout ability and elevated walk rate (10.9%) should mean plenty of traffic on the bases.
The Padres lack the extreme fly-ball hitters I want to target in this matchup. Jake Cronenworth leads the team with a 30.5% fly ball rate versus RHP. Superstars Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado are both closer to the league average, with 24.4% and 26% fly-ball rates, respectively. All three hitters have produced an ISO of .180 or better against RHP and are easily the top targets.
There should be a huge amount of contact from this Padres team. They strike out less than 20% of the time and face a low-strikeout pitcher. The ceiling for the Padres stack is going to be highly dependent on their BABIP and quality of contact.
The Astros also get a matchup with a low-strikeout righty, Ross Stripling, who owns just a 17.3% strikeout rate. Stripling does not quite have the ground-ball ability (43.3%) of Hudson, but he does have far better control (4.4% walk rate). Stripling has allowed slightly less hard contact (37.7%) and a similar amount of barrels (7.9%). But he has not been as successful limiting the power damage, as he has allowed a .189 ISO and 1.65 HR/9.
Superstars Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker all own an ISO of at least .220 versus RHP. Jon Singleton has been productive in a very small sample this season but does not have much of a track record. The opposite can be said for Alex Bregman, who has struggled this season but has a long track record of success.
Both the Padres and Astros have been top-10 offenses this season by wRC+ and wOBA. The Padres are showing pOWN% and Opto% slightly above 7% on DK, while the Astros’ high salaries on DK have them closer to 5% in both categories. On FD, the Padres show up with a pOWN% just under 9%, with the Astros just under 8%. The Astros are much cheaper on FD than DK, leading to slate-high 12% Opto%, while the Padres are just above 10% Opto%.
With all factors considered, I lean slightly to the Astros as the top stack of the day, especially on FD, but we are talking about razor-thin margins here.
PIVOT STACKS
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
