MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, May 20th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We get the week started with an 8-game main slate that gets started a little earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET. The MLB weather looks clear across the league. There are plenty of solid pitchers to spend up for, and only one team (the Dodgers) has an implied total above 5 runs.
Run scoring may be at a premium on this Monday, but let’s dive in and discuss which offenses we should be targeting.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, May 20th
CHALK STACKS
Brewers at Ryan Weathers
Astros vs. Reid Detmers
Early ownership projections in the Top Stacks tool have three teams leading the slate in popularity on DraftKings, with the Brewers, Astros, and Twins all clustered around 12%. On FanDuel, it is the Astros leading the slate with roughly 13% pOWN%, and the Brewers, Mariners, and Dodgers following in a cluster around 10%.
If one of these teams has a chance to separate as we get closer to lock, I would side with the Brewers on DK, as they have the best matchup on paper, and the Astros on FD, due to a few players who are still underpriced.
The Brewers head down to South Florida to take on the Marlins. Ryan Weathers will draw the start for the Fish, and he has posted a respectable 3.81 through 9 starts this season. The strikeouts for Weathers are well below the league average at 17.9%, but he has improved his walk rate to an above average 7.5%. SIERA (4.31) and xERA (4.50) both agree that Weathers has been a little lucky this season, and doesn’t quite deserve the above average results he has posted. The .248 BABIP immediately jumps out as unsustainable, and an 8.6% barrel rate allowed also suggests more trouble on the horizon. Weathers has struck out just 15.4% of right-handed batters this season, and the Brewers project to roll out 8 of them in their lineup today.
The top four hitters in the Brewers lineup look especially intriguing. William Contreras destroyed LHP last season, with a .292 ISO. And while he has not been as productive this season, we have a sample of just a 34 plate appearances. The opposite can be said of Christian Yelich, who managed just a .110 ISO versus LHP last season but already has 2 home runs in 14 plate appearances this season. Willy Adames has a very healthy .182 ISO against LHP since the start of last season, and Gary Sanchez has ridiculous numbers against LHP and has made a career as a “lefty masher.”
Beyond the top four hitters, the Brewers lineup falls off rather quickly, but Joey Ortiz has displayed at least a little bit of power. Jackson Chourio has scuffled to begin his career, but he has the pedigree and power/speed upside to be fantasy relevant in any game.
The speed upside is another bonus with the Brew Crew, as they have swiped the 3rd-most bases in the league this season.
The Brewers are currently projected to be the most popular stack on DK and 2nd-most popular on FD. Despite that popularity, their Opto% far exceeds their pOWN% on both sites, and I think we can feel free to target the Brewers heavily in any format.
The Astros rank 4th in MLB in wRC+ (117) and wOBA (.332). They have a winnable matchup against Reid Detmers and the Angels. Detmers owns an above-average strikeout rate (26.3%), but he has also allowed a 9.4% barrel rate this season. Lefties, in particular, have squared him up well, as Detmers has allowed a 15.2% barrel rate and .255 ISO to same-handed hitters this season.
Kyle Tucker has turned in an MVP-caliber season so far this year, performing even better than superstar teammate, Yordan Alvarez. Jose Altuve remains incredibly productive; the power has fallen off a bit against LHP this season, but he just posted a .192 ISO against LHP last season. Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena both own well-above-average numbers against LHP. Jake Meyers is bordering on elite-level production against LHP in his career, and Jon Singleton has been extremely successful in lefty-lefty matchups.
Pricing is likely going to drive some ownership to the Astros on FanDuel, where Altuve and Alvarez are both under $4,000 and Bregman is just $2,900. Their Opto% far exceeds their pOWN% on FD, but it is more in line with their pOWN% on DK.
Ultimately, I am not concerned about these levels of ownership for large-field tournaments and will happily play them at rates slightly ahead of the field. In single-entry and small-field tournaments, I do want to be mindful of differentiation, as I think the Brewers and Astros are the two most likely stacks to see condensed ownership.
PIVOT STACK
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