MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, May 27th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a great day of baseball ahead on this Memorial Day, but please take a moment to remember and honor those who have fallen serving our country.
For the purposes of this article, we will focus on the DraftKings 8-game main slate that begins at 1:05 PM ET. FanDuel is going with a 7-game main slate that begins at 4:10 PM ET, and some of the information below will be useful there as well.
Offense definitely seems to overpower pitching on this slate, so we should have no shortage of stacking options.
Let’s discuss.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, May 27th
“CHALK” STACKS
Guardians at Austin Gomber
Blue Jays at Nick Nastrini
The Guardians head into Coors Field to take on left-hander Austin Gomber of the Rockies. Gomber has actually posted excellent results this season (2.76 ERA), but it sure does look fraudulent if we dig a little deeper. First, his BABIP sits at just .232, compared to a .300 mark for his career heading into this season. His SIERA (4.42) and xERA (4.14) both suggest there may be some serious regression on the horizon. Also, he has struck out just 17.4% of the batters he has faced, and he has allowed a 9.6% barrel rate. That amount of contact, and that quality of contact, are eventually going to catch up to him in Coors Field.
Cleveland has been an above average offense this season, with a 104 wRC+ that ranks 10th in baseball. But when we look at their performance against LHP, they jump into the elite tier. Their 128 wRC+ and .345 wOBA against LHP both rank 2nd in baseball. They have been appropriately priced up for their situation, but that should only hold their ownership in check.
Jose Ramirez is always an elite option, especially when swinging from his power side against a lefty. David Fry has been elite this season in a limited sample, and his numbers against LHP are off the charts.
Josh Naylor has been excellent in lefty-lefty matchups in his career, and it is worth noting Gomber has displayed reverse splits in his career. The reverse splits are also intriguing for Andres Gimenez, even if he feels a bit overpriced.
Tyler Freeman has a fair price assuming he grabs the leadoff spot again.
The Guardians own the top implied run total on the slate and are priced accordingly. The many other great options on this slate should help keep their ownership in check, making them playable in any format.
The Blue Jays are the other team that stands out in the top tier given their matchup against rookie right-hander Nick Nastrini of the White Sox. Nastrini has made just 3 career MLB starts. It has gone quite poorly to say the least, as he has allowed 17 runs in just 11.1 innings.
His most recent outing came against this very Jays offense, who blew him up for 9 runs in 3.1 innings. He walked SIX (!) and recorded ZERO strikeouts in the outing. Frankly, I cannot believe the White Sox are giving him another start in the big leagues at this point, but they just don’t have any other options and seem to have accepted their fate as one of the worst teams in baseball this season.
Danny Jansen has been the Jays’ best hitter this season, and Davis Schneider has been consistently solid.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are loaded with talent, and their power should return at some point. They have both hit the ball on the ground too often, but Nastrini’s 40.7% fly-ball rate to righties should help with those troubles.
Daulton Varsho is the other bat to highlight here, as he owns a .206 ISO versus RHP since the beginning of last season.
Overall, Toronto has been a below-average offense this season (97 wRC+), but the matchup far outweighs any concerns there.
PIVOT STACKS
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