MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, April 6th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
What’s up, Grinders? Welcome to the best day of the week. We’ve got another split-slate Saturday with 7 games on the early slate and 8 games on the MLB main slate. We’re here to talk about the main slate, as usual. It doesn’t sound like we’ll have too many weather issues tonight, but there’s always something at this time of year. Kevin Roth says the games in Kansas City and Colorado will feature extreme winds, with the winds in Denver being wild enough to bring the potential for postponement into the equation. We shall see.
Regardless, there’s still enough to like on this slate to where stacking Coors is far from the only viable path. Let’s figure out how to stack ‘em up on this fine Saturday.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, April 6th
Coors! – Rockies vs. Tyler Alexander; Rays at Ryan Feltner
We do have quite a few teams with implied run totals north of 5 tonight, but 2 of them will do battle in LoDo. The Rays’ 5.92 mark is the highest on the night, while the Rockies are sitting at 5.08 as of this writing. Roth says the winds in this game are going to be crazy, with sustained gusts between 35-40 miles an hour with the potential to get up to 50-60. The wind is blowing a bit in from left and across the field from left to right.
The Rays have the more talented offense overall, of course. They’ll take their swings against Ryan Feltner, a right-hander with a career 6.04 ERA and a 4.80 SIERA at the major-league level. Feltner’s career strikeout rate is south of 20%. His walk rate is up over 10%. He doesn’t have much of a groundball lean, while he’s allowed plenty of power to hitters of either handedness. None of this is good.
The Rays won’t fly under the radar if the game plays, as the secret about Coors Field being by far and away the best hitter’s park in the league has been out for, oh, the last 30 years or so. The sites did a decent job of pricing the Tampa Bay hitters up, as you’ll have to pay a premium to get to any of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Brandon Lowe, or Yandy Diaz.
I’m not concerned about splits when it comes to attacking Feltner, though Jose Siri and Richie Palacios both did hit for plenty of power vs. right-handers a season ago. You’ll certainly feel good about your chances if you stack Tampa Bay here, but their projected ownership is about double their opto rates on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.
These days, the contrarian way to play Coors is to stack the Rockies. It’s generally not the path of least resistance, but the conditions are the same for hitters on both teams. Tyler Alexander isn’t an imposing lefty, and he doesn’t profile as the kind of guy capable of taming the elements here.
Colorado is a legitimately poor offense, but even the poorest of offenses will have their days on occasion. The Rockies scored 10 runs just yesterday, in fact. Alexander is more susceptible to right-handed power, and the Rockies do have a bit of that among Ezequiel Tovar, Brendan Rodgers, Kris Bryant, and Elias Diaz. Elehuris Montero even posted an ISO of over .200 against opposite-handed pitching last season.
The Rockies won’t be as popular as the Rays, but they’re still projecting for negative leverage. They’re coming in with around 7% stack pOWN% on DraftKings and FanDuel, though their chances of being optimal are down around 2%.
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