MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, August 12
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy weekend! We’ve got a few afternoon games on the schedule, but the main event rolls around tonight at 7:05 ET. DraftKings has a 10-game slate that features Game 2 of the Braves-Mets double-dip, while FD decided to exclude it. That’s a rather important note, as the Braves are a top stack (as always) and Spencer Strider is the obvious SP1 in all formats. As a result, things come together quite differently on FanDuel.
For the purposes of this article, I’ll discuss stacks we can play on both sites. You don’t need me to tell you that the Braves are a good play anyway.
How should we stack ‘em up tonight?
The Chalk Stack – Brewers vs. Jesse Scholtens
I’m not sure any single stack will come in with overwhelming ownership tonight. The Braves will be popular by default on DK, but paying up for Strider makes it awfully difficult to also jam in their pricey hitters. One team that should gain some steam on both sites is the Brewers, who will take their swings against Jesse Scholtens at homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field.
Scholtens has a reverse right-handed split. All 7 homers he’s served up this season have been hit by righties. RHBs also have a .364 wOBA against him, and they’re only striking out about 15% of the time. Scholtens also has no apparent groundball ability against what has historically been a fairly groundball-prone Milwaukee lineup.
Willy Adames and William Contreras stand out here from the preferred side of the plate against Scholtens, though nothing about his numbers makes his .230 wOBA allowed to lefties look sustainable. As a result, I’ll be paying up for Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick in stacks early and often.
Brice Turang (3.9%) and Carlos Santana (6.9%) have been weak on the barrels front vs. RHPs this season, but they’re affordable. Ditto for Abraham Toro, who has put up impressive numbers (.353 ISO, .529 wOBA, 17% barrels) in a tiny 19-PA sample against righties this year. He’s projected to hit sixth, and he’s the stone minimum on FanDuel.
The Brewers aren’t popping in projections quite like they were yesterday, but they still look great. They’re only projected for 4.7% stack ownership on DraftKings with a hefty 9.2% opto%. They’ll be a little more popular on the Braves-less FanDuel slate (7% stack pOWN), but that projected ownership is still lower than their opto rate (8.5%).
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