MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, July 13th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got another split-slate Saturday in store, but we’re here to discuss the 8-game early dockets on DraftKings and FanDuel. While there are several playable pitchers out there today, the pool isn’t quite as deep as it was last night. We also don’t have anything obvious standing out on the hitting side, so hopefully this will be another slate with spread out stack ownership.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, July 13th
CHALKY STACKS
Reds vs. Edward Cabrera
Phillies vs. Mitch Spence
It feels like we’ve had a week straight of Reds chalk, and we could see more of the same this afternoon. They’re still at home, and Great American Ballpark is the most homer-friendly park on the board today. Cincinnati made the most of their plus matchup against Yonny Chirinos, though they’ll face a more talented arm this afternoon in Edward Cabrera.
Cabrera’s only made 6 starts for Miami this season due to injury, and his outing last Sunday against the White Sox was his first in 2 months. It didn’t go particularly well, but he still threw 82 pitches across 3.2 innings of work. Cabrera has a career 26.7% strikeout rate at the MLB level, including a 30.7% mark in a limited sample this term. Walks have always been an issue for him, though. His career walk rate is pushing 14%, while he’s north of 13% this summer. However, despite the crazy walk rate, Cabrera’s 3.81 SIERA is still over 3 full runs better than his 6.84 ERA in the early going.
Cabrera takes a sizable park hit trading his spacious home yard for this bandbox, though his ground ball lean should help him a little. The Reds’ 4.93 implied run total is among the highest on the slate, and the stack is still pretty affordable once you get past the pricey Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer.
Cabrera projects for a neutral split from the right side, so I won’t get too bogged down in hitter handedness when it comes to stacking Cincy against him. De La Cruz (15%) is sporting the highest barrel rate of any Red vs. RHP across a healthy 260-plate appearance sample, though Rece Hinds (37.5%) has been absolutely raking since getting the call earlier this week. Will Benson (13%) is the only other Cincinnati bat with a barrel rate north of 10%, though Tyler Stephenson (9.4%) and Jeimer Candelario (8.9%) have been respectable in that regard.
I’m a little concerned with the strikeouts, as De La Cruz, Candelario, Benson, and Noelvi Marte have all whiffed quite a bit vs. righties, and we know Cabrera can miss bats. The heftier salaries on DraftKings are the likely culprit for the Reds’ optimal rate (8.3%) being lower than their projected stack ownership (13.1%). On FanDuel, however, we’re getting some leverage here with 11.6% stack pOWN% compared to a 13.4% Opto%.
The Phillies (5.48) are sporting the highest total of the early slate at 5.48 against the Athletics’ Mitch Spence. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber returned from the IL earlier in the week, so the lineup looks quite a bit beefier than it did a week ago. JT Realmuto is still missing, but these guys are otherwise at full strength.
Spence really doesn’t have poor numbers this season. The right-hander has a 4.29 ERA, though his 3.87 SIERA is legitimately good. His strikeout rate is sitting right at 20% along with a 5.5% walk rate and 8.6% barrel rate. Spence is also keeping the ball on the ground at a respectable 46.9% clip.
While the stats are fine, he’s still not blowing anybody away with that 20% K rate. His strikeout rate is considerably higher against lefties, while he’s inducing more ground balls from his fellow righties. I’m still inclined to favor the LHBs in the Phillies’ order given Spence’s .336 wOBA allowed, which puts Schwarber and Harper right at the top of the wish list, as usual.
Brandon Marsh (.221 ISO, .396 wOBA) has quietly raked right-handed pitching this season, so I love him here as a cheaper lefty to throw into the stack. Bryson Stott and Garrett Stubbs aren’t quite as imposing as the others, but they’re still playable, of course. Spence’s neutral right-handed split keeps the red hot Trea Turner (.393 wOBA, .159 ISO) squarely in play if you can afford him.
As much as I’d like to just jam in the Phillies today, we do live in the world of a salary cap. Fully stacking them requires some sacrifices. Getting to a cheap team like Oakland or Miami as your secondary stack may be necessary if you don’t want to punt pitching. If you are comfortable taking the risky approach with your arms, you’re likely looking at Christian Scott, Tyler Phillips, Gavin Williams, or Edward Cabrera to go with your Phillies stack.
Philadelphia’s Opto% on DraftKings is about 3% lower than their 10% projected ownership on DK. On FD, we’re looking at about 10.7% projected stack ownership next to a 9.5% Opto%.
PIVOT STACK
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