MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, July 6th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got an 8-game early slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that’ll be the subject of our analysis. Things aren’t quite as fun on the pitching front as they were last night, but we do still have a few high-upside arms at the top, headlined by Garrett Crochet. This slate also doesn’t have Coors Field, nor does it have teams like the Dodgers, Astros, or Yankees. It looks like a tough one to parse, but that’s why we’re here. Let’s take a deeper dive and figure things out.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, July 6th
CHALK STACK
Mets at Bailey Falter
The Mets aren’t getting much of a park upgrade as they head to PNC to take on the Pirates. They’ll take their hacks against lefty Bailey Falter, who’s gotten decent results thus far. The underlying stuff says he’s due to regress though, and the Mets’ 5-run implied team total is among the highest on the board.
I was surprised to see Falter’s 3.87 ERA, but a 4.80 SIERA lurks beneath the surface. Strikeouts (16.7%) aren’t really his thing, while his barrel rate is a tick too high at 9.3%. Falter’s fly-ball rate is also about 9% higher than his ground-ball rate. He’s been a bit lucky on the BABIP front (.246), and he’s yielded 12 homers across 16 games. Nothing about this is awful, but it’s not great either.
The Mets have been fairly boom/bust with the bats this season, but the lineup profiles well against LHP. In all, today’s projected 9 boasts a .364 wOBA, .212 ISO, and a hefty 12.1% barrel rate. That’ll all do just fine, and Brandon Nimmo is the only lefty projected to crack the order. Some of these individual barrel rates are eye-popping:
- Francisco Lindor – 18.3%
- Pete Alonso – 15.2%
- J.D. Martinez – 24.4%
- Mark Vientos – 14.9%
- Harrison Bader – 13.4%
Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez have also fared well against LHP, while Jose Iglesias is sporting a .457 wOBA in a very limited sample. He’s not a good hitter historically, so take that with a grain of salt. Falter’s K rate plunges to 15.5% against righties, and 10 of the 12 homers he’s allowed have been slugged by righties.
It’s a pretty appealing matchup despite the ballpark not typically catering to righty power. One issue is the Mets are fairly pricey, so you may have to do something scary at SP2 if you want to play them with Crochet. I suspect that’ll be a popular approach, so finding a way to get different with the secondary stack is key. I also don’t hate the idea of going with a 2-man or 3-man mini Mets stack to pair with a cheaper primary stack. The Mariners, Giants, or {deep sigh} White Sox come to mind.
Our projections don’t adore the Mets, as they’re projected for negative leverage on both sites. They’re coming in around 8% on DraftKings with a 6% Opto%. We’ve got 9% over on FanDuel with about a 7.5% Opto%.
PIVOT STACK
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