MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 11th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Tonight’s slate offers some intriguing pitching options, but the position isn’t nearly as deep as it was on last night’s boffo 12-game slate. Ownership should be fairly concentrated among the most expensive options, while there is a cheap SP2 on DraftKings that could garner some attention. There are plenty of spots worth exploiting tonight with bats, and going against the grain on this slate offers massive payoff potential.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, May 11th
Chalk Stack – Rangers at Ryan Feltner
The Rangers didn’t exactly come through for us last night, as they mustered just a couple of runs in a loss to Austin Gomber and the Rockies in Colorado. They’ll be back at it tonight, however, and we have to have short memories in DFS. Naturally, the Rangers should be the chalk offense again, especially on a shorter slate. Texas has the highest implied run total on the board (5.75) as they prepare to face right-hander Ryan Feltner at elevation.
Feltner really isn’t a bad pitcher, especially compared to the rest of the rotation the Rockies are trotting out there these days. His 5.54 ERA may lead you to believe otherwise, but his 3.81 SIERA is legitimately good. Feltner has been victimized by a .359 BABIP, while he’s only managed to strand about 63% of baserunners. League average is right around 72%. He’s not walking anyone, while his ground ball rate is higher than his fly ball rate. Feltner’s 21% strikeout rate is around average as well.
Still, we have much more data that tells us Coors is the best hitting environment in the sport by a wide margin, even if it’s felt underwhelming all season. The Rangers’ lineup is also a legitimately good one, which makes them an easier sell, even at ownership in GPPs. Texas’ projected lineup is only striking out around 18% of the time vs. RHPs on the season, while they’re walking nearly 11% of the time. Walks aren’t exciting, but there’s more potential for major damage if they’re putting ducks on the pond.
Over the last 2 seasons combined, Adolis Garcia (15.8%) and Corey Seager (14.4%) predictably lead the Rangers in barrel rate against righties. Evan Carter (9.3%) and Josh Smith (8.7%) have done some damage from the left side. Feltner’s neutral splits mean we can comfortably stack anyone who cracks the lineup. Marcus Semien is right there with Garcia and Seager as your top overall plays, while Nathaniel Lowe and Jonah Heim fit easily into stacks.
They’re priced accordingly for the spot, so we’ll have to make some sacrifices on the pitching side in order to afford the full stack. Andrew Heaney ($6,300) and Mason Black ($5,900) are a couple of cheap SP2s worth targeting on DK in order to afford the full Ranger stack.
The Rangers are projected to pull the most ownership of any stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel, yet the projections say they’re still not popular enough. Texas’ 17% optimal rate on DraftKings eclipses their 15% stack pOWN%. The gulf is even wider on FD, where they’re projected for about 10% ownership next to a 17% chance of being optimal.
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