MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 18th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got another split-slate Saturday on tap, but we’re here to talk about the 7-game main slate kicking off at 7:10 PM ET. Just 2 of the 14 teams in action have implied run totals of at least 5 runs, and this is another slate with a few intriguing pitching options in several different pricing tiers. Let’s get to stacking.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, May 18th
CHALK STACK
Royals vs. Ross Stripling
The A’s have been a bit pluckier than expected so far this season, but we can still pick on their rather suspect starting rotation. I wouldn’t say Ross Stripling is a gas can, but he is getting a park downgrade just about any time he leaves the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum. The veteran right-hander’s ERA is pushing 5.00 through his first 9 starts of the year, while his SIERA – 4.69 – isn’t much better.
Chicken Strip’s 14.4% strikeout rate on the season is a career low, and the ground-ball ability he flashed earlier in his career with the Dodgers has all but evaporated. He’s still not getting killed by hard contact or home runs – 3% barrels, 5 HR allowed – but Kansas City’s 5.37 implied run total this evening is pretty easily the highest on the board.
Stripling used to have a pronounced reverse platoon split from the right side, but over the past couple of seasons, he’s really just been mediocre against hitters from both sides of the plate. RHBs posted a .338 wOBA with 12 homers against him last year. Lefties were at .361 with 8 more dingers. We’ve seen similar results thus far in 2024.
The moral of the story is we don’t have to concern ourselves with handedness when it comes to stacking the Royals against Stripling. Bobby Witt is going to project up there with the likes of Shohei Ohtani as the best hitter on the slate tonight thanks to his power/speed combination. Salvador Perez (.394 wOBA, .237 ISO, 14.6% barrels) is tearing the cover off the ball vs. righties in his age-52 season, and he’s really the only other expensive bat we have to worry about jamming in.
Pretty much any other Royal is more reasonably priced. Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia would be the next priorities given their lofty projected lineup spots. Some of the surface stats for MJ Melendez are underwhelming, but he is making quality contact as evidenced by his 11.7% barrel rate and .208 ISO vs. RHPs in 114 trips to the plate so far this term. Nelson Velazquez (9.3% barrels, .173 ISO) is a similar case, and he’s cheap. Michael Massey helps you fill second base, while Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Isbel are both useful salary savers toward the bottom of the order.
The aforementioned run total means the Royals won’t be flying under the radar from an ownership standpoint. KC is checking in with about 11% projected stack ownership on DraftKings next to a 13% optimal rate. KC is projecting for negative leverage on FanDuel, as evidenced by their 4% opto rate and 8% stack pOWN%.
PIVOT STACK
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
