MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, April 21st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
DraftKings and FanDuel are doing things a little differently today, which seems to be the case every single day, frankly. DK’s main MLB slate for Sunday is a nice 10-gamer starting at 1:35 PM ET. FanDuel has those same 10 games along with the SEA/COL Coors Field extravaganza that starts nearly an hour after every other game on the slate. Why did they do this? The world will never know.
If you’re a seasoned MLB DFS veteran, you likely don’t need me to tell you that the Coors game is a likely great source of offense, particularly on the Seattle side. If you’re not a seasoned MLB DFS veteran, I will tell you that the Coors game is likely a great source of offense, particularly on the Seattle side. For the purposes of Top Stacks today, however, I’ll be focusing on the 10 games shared by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get stackin’.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, April 21st
Chalk Stack – Astros at Mitchell Parker
The Mariners against Cal Quantrill in Denver today will be popular on FanDuel, but I’d expect the Astros to garner some ownership on both sites. They’ll be taking their swings against lefty Mitchell Parker on the road in Washington. The 24-year-old lefty isn’t one of the prime suspects in the Nationals’ system, though he did turn in 5 impressive innings against the Dodgers in LA in his MLB debut earlier in the week.
Parker did flash some strikeout ability in the minors, but he also struggled with control. Parker is also a fly-ball lefty, and his ability to keep the ball in the yard will likely depend on avoiding barrels. The Dodgers managed to barrel him up 13% of the time in his debut, yet he still managed to escape with just 2 earned runs allowed.
Houston has a 5.25 implied run total in this one, so Vegas obviously isn’t all that keen on Parker’s chances of stifling another high-end offense today. Alex Bregman (.074 ISO, .272 wOBA) is one of a few bats in this lineup off to a very slow start, but Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Yainer Diaz, and Jeremy Pena have all swung it well against LHPs to begin 2024.
Alvarez and Tucker may be the 2 best lefty-on-lefty hitters in the sport, so I’ll be happy to pay up for one or both of them in any Houston stacks this afternoon. Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon are a couple of lower-in-the-order righties worth considering, while I have next to zero interest in what appears to be an extremely washed version of Jose Abreu.
Going into Washington is actually a park upgrade for the Astros’ hitters, and this is another slate with enough cheap pitching to make the expensive stack work.
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