MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, August 11th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Sunday brings a smaller main slate than we usually have, with 7 games on DraftKings and 8 on FanDuel. The lone difference is a rather large one, as FD has included the ATL-COL Coors Field affair. I’ll be analyzing stacks we can play on both sites in this piece today, but that doesn’t mean you should be fading Coors on FD, obviously.
We still have a couple of other teams with implied run totals north of 5, so we do still have some appealing stacking options over on the Coors-free DK slate. Let’s learn more about said stacking options, shall we?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, August 11th
CHALK STACK
Astros at James Paxton
Fenway Park is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the sport, and the Astros have enjoyed their weekend there to this point. Houston will look for the sweep of the Red Sox this afternoon when they take their hacks against James Paxton, a past-his-prime lefty the Sox are using to fill some innings down the stretch.
Paxton’s had a rough year, with a career-worst 16.8% strikeout rate to go with an ugly 11.5% walk rate. His 4.42 ERA isn’t quite as awful as it should be, however, based on his 5.35 SIERA. The ground ball stuff he flashed earlier in his career appears to be completely gone, and he’s allowed 12 homers through 20 starts between Los Angeles and Boston.
The Astros are a low-strikeout offense to begin with, so Paxton should have a very tough time keeping them in check this afternoon. To make matters worse, this game also features steady winds blowing out to center at around 10 miles an hour. Paxton has been a significantly better pitcher against lefties this season, with a .278 wOBA allowed, 1 home run, and a ground ball rate north of 53%. You know who doesn’t give a damn about that? The lone left-handed bat in the Astros’ projected lineup, Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is one of the few lefties in the sport who routinely pastes same-handed pitching, and he’s up to a robust .426 wOBA, .215 ISO, and 14.7% barrel rate against them this season. He may be even better against lefties than he is against righties, so you likely shouldn’t be fading Yordan if you’re stacking Houston just because of the lefty-lefty matchup.
Paxton will otherwise have to deal with 8 RHBs. Yainer Diaz (10.4%) is weirdly the Astros’ only righty with a double-digit barrel rate vs. southpaws, but I still trust the long term goodness we’ve seen from Jose Altuve (.365 wOBA) and Alex Bregman (.170 ISO). Jake Meyers (.331 wOBA, .183 ISO) is quietly having a breakout season at the plate, while you can save some salary with Jeremy Pena, Zach Dezenzo, Chas McCormick, and/or Mauricio Dubon, pending the lineup.
Even if this lineup doesn’t boast the sexiest collection of names these days, there’s still reason to believe they can do significant damage against Paxton given his lack of Ks and general woes so far this season. The ‘Stros’ 5.33 implied run total is the highest of any non-Coors offense on the slate and with good reason.
They’re not flying under any radars, though. The Astros are projected for around 17% projected stack ownership on DK, while their optimal rate is hovering in the 14% range. On FanDuel, where we can stack the Braves, the Astros’ 11% stack pOWN% is in line with their Opto%.
PIVOT STACK
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