MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, August 13
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This slate isn’t huge and it isn’t complex. Ownership projections could be giving us some gifts with over-owned bad offense and under-owned great offense. Let’s dive in.
Chalky Stack – Nationals vs. Ken Waldichuk
We’re not playing chalky Nationals. Ken Waldichuk is no good, but there are pitchers with a much worse HR/9 (1.53) and barrel rates (7.8%) allowed. He does probably have the worst command on the slate (5.25 BB/9), but is this enough to absorb ownership in the teens?
And when we get to the Nats themselves, it’s not like they’re a Murderers’ Row of mashers who’ll smash through any pitcher’s vulnerabilities. Their projected lineup only has a 21.2% strikeout rate since the start of 2022 against lefties, but only a 6.7% barrel rate and 46.9% hard-hit rate.
The Nats mini-stack of Stone Garrett, Riley Adams, and Joey Meneses are in play, as they have the only barrel rates above 7.0% against lefties since the start of 2022. But again, do we wanna mini-stack a highly-owned team?
Nothing here adds up to a team that I wanna play. The pitcher isn’t terrible, the lineup is a bit terrible, and the ownership is too damn high. We have plenty form which to choose.
I’d rather stack the next highest-owned team, the A’s. The A’s are gross too, but Trevor Williams has allowed a 1.99 HR/9 and a 9.8% barrel rate. Plus, the A’s have four guys with double-digit barrel rates against righties: Zack Gelof (17.1%), Seth Brown (14.8%), Shea Langeliers (11.9%), and Jordan Diaz (10.6%). This isn’t a blurb about the Nats. It’s a blurb about the A’s.
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