MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, August 20
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
No Coors, no chalk, and the Braves face the best bullpen in baseball according to THE BAT. So this slate is very interesting.
Of course, you can play the Braves at low pOWN%. You always can. They’re a top-five stack on the slate despite the matchup. They just won’t be one of the four teams we cover here.
Today, I’m taking a guess at what will be the chalkiest team on the slate, discussing how to pivot from there, and closing it out with a long shot stack.
Top-Owned Stack – Blue Jays at Hunter Greene
I don’t like this spot for the Blue Jays. They haven’t been great this season and Hunter Greene was really coming around before he went down with a hip injury. This season, Greene had a 3.70 ERA, 12.27 K/9 and only 1.10 HR/9 allowed despite being a flyball pitcher in the Great American Ball Park.
I get it though.
Greene did allow a 9.3% barrel rate — 11.4% to righties — and the Jays have a bunch of righty power that can smash right-handed pitching (9.2% barrel rate against righties). And this is one of the best ballparks in MLB history for home runs. The Jays should put up some runs, but I’m thinking that they’re the only stack with double-digit ownership, and I’m not sure that I wanna spend that much ownership against one of the better pitchers on the slate.
Moreover, there aren’t many great stacks in the mid-range of pOWN% with which to pair the Jays. Ownership will be spread out enough to where we can play whoever we want. I want to just slip a notch down and stack the Cubs and Cardinals.
The Jays, Cardinals, Yankees, and Cubs are all jumbled the top of pOWN% rankings. I’m guessing that the Jays run away with this ownership a bit, as one of them is likely to. If they slip to under 8%, I’m more apt to play them in all formats. If I’m right and this ownership gets into the double-digits, I might start Greene in one of three lineups. In MME, we should have exposure, as they won’t be the definition of chalk, and it won’t cost too many lineups to be even or go slightly overweight on the field.
As a reminder, Bo Bichette is back from injury, which is a substantial boost to the Jays lineup. Where we’re playing Jays, we’re banking on a lot of flyballs, so we should pretty much play everyone except for Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier. They’ve put out some weird lineups. Don’t let it faze you. If the Jays smash, they’re all getting a ton of plate appearances regardless of lineup order.
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