MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, July 2
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a fairly complex slate for stacks today, and FanDuel makes it more complex by including the Coors Field game on the slate. What this does is allow for lower ownership on the top-owned DraftKings stacks, as the Tigers and Rockies will be sucking about 20% of the air out of the room. The main complexity of this slate is that some of our targets are good pitchers in real life who can struggle with power, but they’re good pitchers nonetheless. Without a wealth of gas cans, we’ll have to get uncomfortable exposure. But DFS is largely about being fearless in uncomfortable situations.
DK Chalk Stack – Phillies vs. Trevor Williams
There won’t be 30% runaway chalk on this slate, but the Phillies are around 12% and should be rising. Trevor Williams has a slate-worst 1.80 HR/9 among qualified pitchers outside of Jameson Taillon (1.84) (who is pitching in a Reverse Wrigley wind game). Williams doesn’t miss bats, and his 11.5% barrel rate allowed is second-worst only to Taillon’s 11.8%. Citizens Bank is a decent enough place to hit, so this might not be a nut spot in a vacuum, as Williams has decent control, but it’s the best spot for power on the slate when we factor in the Phillies’ talent.
This lineup has the two huge boppers at the top in Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper with their 19.3% and 15.5% barrel rates against righties since the start of 2022. Then, there’s J.T. Realmuto at 10.8%, Nick Castellanos at 8.9%, and Brandon Marsh at 8.2%. And that doesn’t include the excellent power-speed combo of Trea Turner and the ready-to-break-out Kody Clemens. Alec Bohm supplies some cheap pop too.
We can easily just play everyone here, and we can do so in all formats, as the Phillies won’t be a 20% stack. We just need to be conscious of the team with which we’re stacking them. I’m not sure that my pivot suggestions will grant us enough leverage on DK.
On FD, with Coors on their slate, the Phillies are the top pivot. Just hit the gas and go.
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