MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, May 12th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
DraftKings and FanDuel are doing things a bit differently on this fine Sunday. The DK main slate is a 9-gamer, while FD is rolling with 10 games and including the TEX-COL Coors Field extravaganza. That’ll make the projected ownership awfully different from site to site, of course. Playing Coors Field bats is generally a good idea, but you probably don’t need me to tell you that. For the purposes of Top Stacks today, I’ll focus on the 9 games the 2 sites have in common this afternoon.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, May 12th
Chalk Stack – Twins at Alek Manoah
I’m assuming the Rangers at Coors will be the most popular stack on FanDuel, and with good reason. We should still see some ownership flock to the Twins, though, who face an exploitable matchup of their own against Alek Manoah. This guy was an All-Star and one of the hottest pitching prospects in the game just a couple of years ago, but his career started to go off the rails last season.
Manoah was likely never the true ace he looked like early in his career, but his descent into gas-can-dom is still quite a surprise. He pitched to a 5.65 SIERA a season ago at the MLB level with his strikeout rate dipping to 19%. He also lost any semblance of control, as his walk rate ballooned to over 14%. Manoah started the 2024 campaign in the minors before rejoining the Blue Jays’ rotation for his first start of the year last Sunday in Washington. That one didn’t go well, as the Nats roughed him up for 7 runs on 6 hits in just 4 innings of work.
It’s hard to imagine Manoah just being a punching bag considering he’s still only 26, but he’s a pitcher we can stack against until he starts to show some signs of his old form. The Twins have a healthy enough 4.53 implied run total against him today, and Manoah’s huge platoon split makes the Minnesota left-handed bats the priorities.
So far this season, the projected Twins lineup boasts a stellar .191 collective ISO with a solid .328 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching. Lefties Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, and Alex Kirilloff look like priorities, while both Willi Castro and Carlos Santana have shown signs of coming around following slow starts to the year. Julien, Larnach, Kepler, and Kirilloff all have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHPs this season, as does Carlos Correa from the right side.
The Minnesota stack is projected to pull the most ownership on DK, though the 12% stack pOWN% is hardly overwhelming. They’re coming in with around a 17% shot at being optimal. On FanDuel, the Coors factor leaves the Twins with only about 9% projected stack ownership, yet their optimal rate is way up around 16.5%.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
