MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, August 29th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a very small 4-game slate on our hands this evening. There are sure to be some crazy pOWN% numbers. Let’s figure out who’s worth playing, and we’ll also try to get off the grid with an off-the-wall stack.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, August 29th
CHALKY STACK
Dodgers vs. Cade Povich
It’s no surprise that the Dodgers are projected to be the chalkiest stack on both sites against Povich. It does seem that Povich has been a bit unlucky, with an ERA over 6.00 but an xERA in the 4.00s.
But the bottom line is that he’s still getting whacked by righties this season, and he’s striking out less than 16% of hitters. Povich is allowing a .243 ISO, .394 wOBA, and a 12% barrel rate to righties this year. Those numbers have remained pretty consistent across the last 30 days.
It’ll usually cost a pretty penny to stack the Dodgers on a given slate. Of course, Shohei Ohtani is matchup-proof (and you could/should be using him somewhere, probably), but you can certainly stack Los Angeles in tournaments and exclude him in it.
Again, there is no argument against Ohtani, but he’s $6,900 on DraftKings and is currently projected to be 29% owned. There aren’t any Chris Sale-priced pitchers on the slate, but the $8,000-$9,000 guys are still intriguing, and this might help get them in your build easier. Your Dodgers stack could be unique without (arguably) the best player in baseball.
The Dodgers now have a nice little core to attack LHP with thanks to Mookie Betts (.291 ISO vs. LHP since 2023) back in the lineup and the addition of Tommy Edman (.194 ISO, .330 wOBA vs. LHP since 2023). Will Smith has a .260 ISO and a massive 44% fly-ball rate against southpaws this season, while Teoscar Hernandez leads the projected lineup with an 18% barrel rate. Kike Hernandez has provided solid value as well.
In addition to being the chalk on both sites, our Top Stacks tool projects the Dodgers with the highest Opto% on FanDuel and the 2nd-highest on DraftKings.
TOP VALUE STACK
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