MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, August 3
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a small six-game slate on our hands tonight, but it should feature more than enough offense. There are few bad pitchers, a couple of red-hot offenses, and of course, the Dodgers! Let’s dive in and check it out.
Chalk Stack – Twins vs. Matthew Liberatore
Liberatore has struggled as a pitcher in the bigs. The young lefty owns a 13% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate while yielding a .180 ISO this season. Those numbers tell me that the ball is frequently in play against him and there will typically be hitting chances with runners on base due to those free passes.
Our top stacks and top values tool believes Minnesota to be the highest-owned stack with the second-best optimal percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Dating back to 2022, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa lead the Twins with 16% and 13% barrel rates, respectively, against left-handed pitchers. However, there are a few more Twins that are sneaky good against left-handed pitching.
Kyle Farmer owns a .216 ISO against southpaws in the same sample size, while the bottom three projected hitters in the lineup (Jeffers, Taylor, Wallner) all carry ISOs north of .160. Turns out the Twins are much less of a dumpster fire against lefties than righties.
In fact, five hitters in the projected Minnesota lineup strike out less than 20% of the time vs. lefties. Jeffers could be particularly interested as a cheap catcher tonight. Against lefties, he owns a 64% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate dating back to the beginning of last season.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
