MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, June 20th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a nice 7-game slate on tap for a 1:05 PM ET start. There should be plenty of fireworks, with a handful of volatile pitchers and a Coors Field game with a monster total.
Let’s get to it.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, June 20th
CHALK STACK
Dodgers at Ty Blach
Surprise! As of early this morning, the Dodgers are projected to be the most popular stack by a wide margin at Coors Field on Thursday. They have an implied team total north of 7 runs! That’s something you’ll only see a few times per season.
Lefty Ty Blach takes the bump for the Rocks, with his 4.65 ERA and 5.18 xERA, suggesting he’s even worse of a pitcher than his pedestrian ERA illustrates. For some reason (albeit in a very small sample size), he’s been much better at home compared to the road this season. I’m expecting some regression because his ERA was over 5.00 both at home and on the road last season.
Blach has shown a few recent signs that the wheels could fall off soon. He’s coughed up 25 hits in his last 15.2 innings. After giving up no more than 1 barrel in each of his first 5 starts, he’s been barreled multiple times in 4 of his last 6 appearances.
Half of this stack is very expensive. You’ll have to pay for Shohei Ohtani again, but he’s no doubt the “best play” on this slate. I don’t care about the lefty-lefty matchup or any obscure reason you can try and come up with to not play him. He’s scorching the Earth, and he’s at Coors Field, with a guaranteed 9th-inning at-bat for his team.
I can’t talk you out of any of these Dodgers. Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez both have massive ISOs north of .300 against LHP. Miguel Vargas is a great value option if he starts. He’s a .300 hitter across 9 MLB games this season, and he enjoyed a multi-hit appearance on Tuesday at Coors. Vargas has been borderline elite in the minors this season, with 38 RBIs in 41 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City.
There are a couple of cheap, volatile pitchers on this slate who are either squaring off against bad offenses (e.g., Spencer Arrighetti) or high-K teams (e.g., Simeon Woods Richardson, Logan Allen). You’ll likely have to roll the dice on someone in that range to make a full Dodgers stack work. But this is such a good matchup, and a cheap bat like Vargas offers so much upside at his price that you could opt to go for a Dodgers’ value mini stack instead. Either way, the Dodgers are good chalk in this situation more often than they aren’t.
PIVOT STACK
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