MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, June 27th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Last night’s slate was marred by a couple of unfortunate weather situations, but things look a bit calmer ahead of tonight’s docket. DraftKings and FanDuel have taken divergent paths with their main slates once again. FanDuel is rolling with a 6-gamer starting at 6:20 PM ET. DK, meanwhile, is only including the 4 games starting at 7:07 ET or later.
The pitching really isn’t a whole lot more exciting than it was yesterday. However, we will have Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes to beef things up a bit over on FanDuel. For this article, I’ll only be discussing stacks we can play on both sites. The Phillies (vs. Trevor Rogers) are projected to be popular on FD, so keep that in mind.
Without further ado, let’s dive right in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, June 27th
POPULAR STACK
Tigers at Davis Daniel
Aside from the Phillies on FD, it doesn’t look like there’s a single stack projected to pull huge ownership. One team looking decently popular on both sites is the Tigers, who will be getting a nice park upgrade going into Anaheim to face right-hander Davis Daniel.
Daniel hasn’t yet pitched in the majors this season, though he did make a few starts for the Angels at the end of 2023. He’s been a straight starter at the Triple-A level, and the Halos need someone to eat some innings. So, I don’t think this turns into a bullpen game unless things go terribly for Daniel early on.
Daniel may not be a complete gas can, but he’s also essentially an unknown against MLB competition. He’s posted a 24.3% K rate with 7.4% walks in the minors this year, and he doesn’t have a pronounced ground-ball lean. THE BAT also projects Daniel to have an average platoon split from the right side, so left-handed hitters figure to have an edge.
The Tigers don’t have the most imposing offense, but they do have a trio of solid lefties in Riley Greene, Colt Keith, and Wenceel Perez all projected to hit 5th or higher in the order. Greene (.392 wOBA, .244 ISO) is the very clear standout here as he continues his under-the-radar breakout. Greene’s 13.9% barrel rate vs. RHP is easily the highest on the Tigers, though Jake Rogers and Justyn Henry-Malloy are both in the double digits in smaller samples.
Matt Vierling (.330 wOBA, .228 ISO) has quietly been quite productive as Detroit’s leadoff hitter, and this stack is mostly cheap. Greene ($5,200 DK, $3,400 FD) is someone I’m happy to pay for, but everyone else in the projected lineup is under $3,000 on FD. Perez and Mark Canha are the only other DK considerations who’ll run you more than $4,000.
It’s weird to say, but the Tigers’ 4.75 implied run total is the highest of the 8 teams appearing on both the DK and FD slates. Daniel will be backed up by an Angels bullpen with the league’s second-worst ERA (5.04), so Detroit has the potential to do more damage once he’s out of the game. They’re also on the road here, so they’ll get those sweet, sweet, guaranteed 9th-inning at-bats.
Detroit is projecting for hefty 33.25% pOWN% on DraftKings, while their optimal rate is a shade under 26%. The pOWN% (10.6%) isn’t as egregious on the larger FD slate, but their Opto% over here is only around 6%, too.
PIVOT STACKS
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