MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, May 9th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
I wish there was an enthralling main slate on tap for Thursday night, but that’s not the case. We have 3 games to choose from, and pretty much anything goes. There are a few decent pitchers, and a couple of cheap dart-throws, so I wouldn’t say anyone is a necessity outside of Sonny Gray in optimal-type builds. The bottom line is that you could make a case for pretty much any of these stacks.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, May 9th
CHALK STACKS
Guardians at Erick Fedde, Royals at Reid Detmers
Let’s start with Cleveland, which our Top Stacks tool projects to be the highest-owned FanDuel stack (and the 2nd-highest on DraftKings), with the 3rd-highest Opto% on both sites.
Fedde has been more than serviceable this season, sporting a 3.67 xERA and a 3.76 FIP. He’s given up a fair share of barrels and hard hits, but he’s only given up more than 2 earned runs twice this season. He’s been a bit backwards, yielding a higher ISO to lefties but a much higher fly-ball rate to righties.
Fedde has done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground against lefties (49%), which doesn’t scream “stack me” in this matchup. Cleveland projects to roll out 8 lefties against him. Ironically, Fedde’s sinker has been his worst pitch. Josh Naylor and Bo Naylor are popping off the page a bit more than the others against right-handed sinkers.
Anything can happen with a mediocre pitcher against a team that does not strike out. But I think I’d rather go elsewhere, especially if the Guardians continue to lead our pOWN% throughout the day, as they rank 19th in wRC+ and 17th in ISO against RHP this season.
As for Detmers vs. Kansas City, it’s a pretty interesting study. A quick glimpse at the game log shows that Detmers hasn’t been good in his last 3 outings. But his 2024 xERA (3.24) and xFIP (3.59) are both much lower than his ERA (4.24), so perhaps he’s been a bit unlucky.
Detmers has given up much more power against lefties (.218 ISO) compared to righties (.138 ISO) and has struck out 7% fewer lefties dating back to the beginning of last season.
The kicker is that the Royals are projected to start 8 righties against him, which could give him an advantage. The Royals rank 26th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ vs. LHP this season. They rank top 2 among our Top Stacks tool in pOWN% and Opto%, but personally, I’d rather just power hunt with them. As volatile as he seems, I’d rather use more of Detmers in my pool on a small slate because of his strikeout upside, and the Royals have been uninspiring vs. southpaws in 2024.
PIVOT STACK
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