MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, June 11th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The most defining dynamic defining our approach to hitting on this slate is the lack of anything closely resembling true chalk. It’s a 12-game slate without all that much to love, to be honest. It’s a slate where we should pick our spots more based on projections, where it will be a simpler process to go overweight on the few best-projected stacks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, June 11th
TOP STACK
Reds vs. Triston McKenzie
Without chalk (qua chalk) on this slate, the best stack for me — all things considered is the Reds. They get to face Triston McKenzie in the best home run park in baseball and McKenzie has been really dreadful.
McKenzie has been pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow, so let’s just focus on 2024 data feeding his 4.94 xERA, where he has a 21.9% K rate to go with a robust 17.8% BB rate, 47.7% hard-hit rate, and a 34.1% fly-ball rate. Righties have a .209 ISO against him, while lefties have a 15.4% barrel rate against him.
Play everyone on the Reds.
Elly De La Cruz and his greenest of green lights on the basepaths with his 100th percentile sprint speed (not hyperbole) to go with his 14.3% barrel rate and 52% hard-hit rate against righties this season is the obvious starting place for our stacks. But there’s merit to every bat in the lineup after him.
Will Benson is hitting 9th these days but leads the team with a 12.7% barrel rate against righties.
Tyler Stephenson has a 9.4% barrel rate against righties this season.
Jeimer Candelario has a .234 ISO against righties.
TJ Friedl is leading off with a .195 ISO against righties.
Spencer Steer has had a rough start to the season but is hitting cleanup in a game where there should be a lot of traffic on the basepaths.
There’s nothing great about Jake Fraley, Jacob Hurtubise, or Jonathan India, but they will reportedly get to hold bats, and that’s good enough for me.
The downside to the Reds — outside of them lacking a ton of talent — is probably that the Guardians bullpen is among the best in the league, but magic happens in this ballpark, so I don’t really care when we’re getting single-digit ownership against McKenzie.
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