MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, June 13
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Huge slate with ownership spread out to the extreme. The top-owned stacks are only in the 6-to-8% range, so dare I say that ownership doesn’t matter on this slate?
It depends. Ownership always matters. Just because we can play the top-two teams doesn’t mean that we should do it often. In single-entry, we can play the best plays. In MME, we can either: spread ourselves out with the ownership flow or take strong stands to go way overweight and underweight on certain spots. The field is likely to do the former, so I prefer the latter, but there isn’t a wrong approach of the two.
Chalky’ish Stacks – Dodgers vs. Lance Lynn and Angels at Cody Bradford
There is a lot of noise on the slate. Lots of pitchers who have bigger names than their production and lots of pitchers who are bad.
Lance Lynn is a bit of both.
Lynn isn’t a bad overall pitcher in real life. He’s about average, but his struggles against lefties are historically terrible. Since the start of 2022, he’s surrendered 2.2 HR/9 to lefties in 444 batters faced. Dodger Stadium isn’t the home run park that Guaranteed Rate is, but it’s still a hitters’ park that gives up a lot of homers.
Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Jason Heyward, and David Peralta are all in play. Lynn has given up 1.6 HR/9 to RHBs over that span, as well, so we shouldn’t forget about Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Basically, play everyone aggressively.
A no-name novice lefty has to face the Angels in Cody Bradford. We know very little about Bradford, but the Angels projected lineup has a collective .222 ISO and an 11.8% barrel rate against LHPs since the start of 2022, while THE BAT projects Bradford to give up 1.66 HR/9 for the rest of the season.
This is a nut spot for the eight RHBs the Angels are looking to trot out there and don’t ever forget Shohei Ohtani against a lefty who will struggle with power prevention.
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