MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, June 18th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Off the bat, I’m fading the Wrigley Field wind game because of pitching but also because that game is gonna suck ownership away from a lot of great spots, opening up the door for us to exploit the field. In this space, we’re gonna discuss how to pivot away from 17-mph winds in Wrigley.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, June 18th
TOP STACK
Dodgers at Austin Gomber
If we’re goin’ straight-projection-homey, the Dodgers are the play. They’re one of the best offenses in baseball in Coors Field against a bad pitcher.
Austin Gomber has allowed a 9.2% barrel rate on a whopping 82.4% contact rate, while the Dodgers come heavy with these big barrel rates against lefties:
Teoscar Hernandez, 17.2%
Shohei Ohtani, 14.7%
Chris Taylor, 12%
Miguel Vargas, 11.6% (!!!)
Freddie Freeman, 10.1%
Will Smith, 9.7%
We can play every Dodger, considering the power of Andy Pages and the potential pop-up power of Kike Hernandez with the price tag of Miguel Rojas.
We have the Dodgers at ~12% pOWN for large-field MME contests. I’d put them closer to 30% for single entry and 25% for smaller fields. In MME, I probably want Dodgers in around a quarter of my lineups. In single entry, I’m full-stacking or fading, and in smaller fields — where I’m playing 5 lineups — I’m likely looking at two full stacks and one mini stack. I’m not fading this glorious spot for projections. I’m playing them aggressively, but we can always fade a spot where we have to have so much exposure to get overweight.
I dislike the passive-aggressive underweight play because if the Dodgers smash, we must diversify the pieces around the Dodgers to get our lineups in positions to win GPPs. There’s just so much luck involved in going underweight on chalk combinations.
PIVOT STACKS
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