MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, June 25th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We should name that there is a very chalky pitching combo projected on DK right off the bat, so we should be careful in who we stack. There is a clear chalky build in Hunter Brown (with Hunter Greene on DK) and the Dodgers that will be widespread. In this space, we’ll discuss the Dodgers, but more importantly, where we can pivot away from the Dodgers and why.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, June 25th
CHALK STACK
Dodgers at Chris Flexen
There’s a lot of bad pitching on this slate. Chris Flexen isn’t the worst pitcher — which is saying something — but he’s definitely in the bottom 5. Add that the Dodgers are the only top-3 offense in baseball (let alone top 8), according to wRC+, and they have a great matchup – they should be big chalk.
Flexen’s 1.84 HR/9 allowed is the worst on the slate, and the 12% barrel rate that he’s surrendering to lefties this season is appetizing. But he doesn’t have the worst power prevention. His barrel rate allowed is 9%, his fly-ball rate allowed is 25.4%, and his hard-hit rate allowed is 44.1%. We can attack him with these high barrel rates against righties from the Dodgers all night long:
Shohei Ohtani, 21.1%
Teoscar Hernandez, 14%
Andy Pages, 12.8%
Freddie Freeman, 10.9%
But we don’t have to. We don’t have to eat this chalk when there’s a better stack going for less ownership.
All of that said, the White Sox have — by far — the worst bullpen in baseball, so even if the Dodgers just score 4-5 on Flexen, there’s a lot of opportunity for them to blow up the slate in the second half of the game.
Our current pOWN% has the Dodgers at under 10%, but we should expect them to gain much more steam than everyone else to become something near runaway chalk (for a 12-gamer). In single entry, I’m flirting with a fade; in three lineups, I’ll have one Dodgers full stack; in MME, my lean to be even with where I think the field will be. But not being way overweight because I’d wanna save lineups for pivots and leverage stacks that will go overlooked.
PIVOT STACKS
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