MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, May 21st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Wrigley Wind is on the slate without much great pitching, outside of two good pitchers in nut spots. The ownership could be scattered though, because there are 8 great stacks on this slate, all things considered. That said, the Braves are the biggest recipient of the Wrigley Wind boost, so we’re gonna approach this article under the assumption that the Braves are somewhere between chalk and mega-chalk, with everything else carrying some sort of leverage. It isn’t a large slate, so 10% isn’t all that much to be afraid of.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, May 21st
BRAVES CHALK IN WRIGLEY WIND
Braves at Javier Assad
We don’t have the Braves running away with ownership yet, but that’s a strong “yet.”
They get a huge park boost to Wrigley, with the wind forecasted to blow out at 25 mph, and get to face a pitcher, Javier Assad, who has surrendered an 83.5% contact rate. In these conditions in Wrigley, pitchers need strikeouts to combat the high wOBAcon, and Assad doesn’t have those Ks in his arsenal. And the Braves are the Braves.
Assad hasn’t given up many runs this season, but lefty power gets the ball in the air pretty well against him — 52.8% hard-hit rate, 26.2% fly-ball rate, 8.9% barrel rate — again, on a high quantity of contact. We should start from the left side with the 16.8% barrel rate of Matt Olson against RHP, the 35.4% fly-ball rate of Ozzie Albies against RHP, and the 56.3% hard-hit rate of Michael Harris against RHP, but we should play everyone. Except maybe Orlando Arcia, but it’s hard to X out one guy from a lineup in a player pool, when the other eight players are totally legit; so, maybe we just cap our exposure to Arcia.
The Braves are expensive, but if Zack Short and his 30.8% fly-ball rate and 8.4% barrel rate remain in the lineup, he’s a great punt to help us afford the pricier Braves full stack. And we are full-stacking the Braves. Their ownership should be so high that we shouldn’t be passive-aggressive with how we play them. Pitching isn’t great at the top, so the field won’t be spending a high opportunity cost to go down to affordable pitching in order to afford the Braves full stack.
In single-entry tournaments, we never have to play the chalk, especially when we’re talking about 35-40% possible ownership. In MME, we can go underweight in the ~15% range. Not because the Braves have a low success rate, but because there is a high opportunity cost to going 40% on the Braves in that that lowers our exposure to the Orioles against Lance Lynn, the Cubs on the other side of this environment, the Astros against Griffin Canning, and the Dodgers against Brandon Pfaadt. All of these pivots should catch some ownership, but are all capped by the Braves sucking up so much air. We should exploit that.
CHALKY PIVOT STACKS
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
