MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, May 7th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Pitching pOWN% and projection is highly concentrated at the top, and stacks should turn out the same way, so where we pivot altogether is gonna be our paths to success or failure more so than the average large slate. In this space, we’ll look at Coors and Wrigley along with spots to which we should pivot in order to not take on too much risk at pitcher.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, May 7th
COORS AND WRIGLEY WIND STACKS
Giants at Dakota Hudson
Cubs vs. Randy Vasquez
Dakota Hudson is the worst pitcher on the slate. His 5.32 SIERA, 5.08 K/9, and 2.4% K-BB rate are the worst by far, to go with 4.11 BB/9. He’s limited the power against him with under 1.00 HR/9, but we’re talking about an 8.3% barrel rate allowed on an 81.7% contact rate.
We can play every Giant tonight, but we should highlight the high barrel rates against RHP of:
Matt Chapman, 14.1%
Blake Sabol, 11.8%
LaMonte Wade, 9.9%
Michael Conforto, 9.4%
Mike Yastrzemski, 9.1%
Jung Hoo Lee is much better against LHP, but this is a great park for his 30.1% line-drive rate and 84th-percentile speed at the top of the order. Also, we shouldn’t forget about Thairo Estrada, who has a 9.3% barrel rate through 98 PAs versus RHP this season in the #2-hole. Basically, it’s just Nick Ahmed that makes us wanna puke a little in our mouths.
The Rockies ‘pen is really bad too, so there are no worries when Hudson comes out of the game.
The only reason why the Giants won’t be mega-chalk is that the wind is forecasted to blow out of Wrigley at around 10 MPH, which is just at that threshold where we wanna play all of the bats. Randy Vasquez has allowed a .267 ISO to lefties and 29% line-drive rate overall. All the Cubs will have to do is get some lift with Vasquez’ 50% hard-hit rate allowed, and they can break the slate.
I don’t think it’s worth getting deep into the weeds on the Cubs hitters. We just play them all, as they’re all either big threats for power, speed, salary savings, or fill a position where we can punt.
Where we should be highly cautious on these teams is projected ownership. We currently have the two gobbling up a combined 25% of stack ownership on DraftKings. Expect this total to be near 40-45% in single-entry and small-field tournaments. This ownership is gonna come from somewhere, and it’s likely away from the Dodgers, who are currently projected for ~10% in MME contests.
Going 50% on Giants and Cubs together isn’t a crazy strategy for MME. I think we need to be really aggressive on both or underweight on both. Hit the gas on these projections or get aggressive with other lower-owned options. Matching the field might be too safe to win GPPs.
PIVOT STACKS
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