MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, September 24th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The pickens for stacks are pretty slim on this slate. Only two pitchers have xERAs over 4.50, but they face the White Sox and Angels. Only two pitchers have allowed more than 1.35 HR/9, and only one has allowed a double-digit barrel rate. Tread lightly on this high-variance slate.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, September 24th
CHALK STACK
Cardinals at Ryan Feltner
Without obvious gas cans on the slate, the field will gravitate toward Coors Field. With no one wanting to play Rockies stacks, this leaves a lot of field exposure to the visiting Cardinals against Ryan Feltner.
And I don’t love it.
Feltner isn’t a good pitcher. His K/9 is low (7.72), and his xERA is on the high side (4.41), but there’s some harm reduction in his game. His 2.93 BB/9 isn’t low, but it isn’t something to exploit either, while he’s limiting his overall barrel rate allowed to just 6.9%, manifesting in just 1.14 HR/9.
That said, he is allowing an 8.5% barrel rate to righties, and there are a couple of high righty barrel rates against right-handed pitching in the Cardinals lineup in Paul Goldschmidt (12.3%) and Jordan Walker (12.1%) to go with the speed of Masyn Winn at the top of the order. Nolan Arenado is fine for a full stack, but his numbers are way down — and the ballpark in St. Louis isn’t the only factor. Arenado’s barrel rate is down to 3.1% against righties, while his fly-ball rate is down to 23.1% for an ISO of just .114.
But it’s Coors and the Rockies bullpen is bad, so we can play everyone. I’m just not looking to go overweight in this situation. The Cards and Rockies have the highest implied total on the slate, but it’s only 5.0. That’s low for Coors. We might find a higher ceiling for lower ownership elsewhere.
TOP STACKS
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