MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, September 3rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a massive 10-game slate on our hands. This one features a bit of everything – bad pitchers to attack, expensive offenses, and Chris Sale in a killer spot. Let’s talk about some of our options.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, September 3rd
CHALK STACK
Dodgers at Reid Detmers
It’s surely been a roller coaster ride for Detmers this year. Much like the previous few seasons, he’s flashed some K stuff, but before getting sent down to the minors, he compiled an ERA over 6.00, got smacked around by lefties, and walked 11% of them.
Detmers hasn’t pitched in the bigs since June 1, and the Angels are doing no favors for him by calling him back up to pitch against a healthy Dodgers team that currently has the highest implied run total on the slate. He continued to be brutal in Triple-A, posting a 5.54 ERA across 78 IP, and across all levels (including MLB), he’s served up 28 home runs. Reid was much worse in the bigs this season against lefties (oddly enough), yielding a .258 ISO, .367 wOBA, and allowing a massive 13% barrel rate to them.
Detmers has proven to be anything but predictable. But if you’re a believer in (very) recent form, he’s been scorching across his last 3 Triple-A starts, allowing just 3 ERs across 21 IP while adding 29 strikeouts during the stretch.
In theory, this matchup sets up really well for the expensive, talented Dodgers. My problem is that I’d want to use Shohei Ohtani down to Will Smith (in terms of DraftKings pricing), and they range from $7,000-$4,700. That’s a pretty penny to spend, and Chris Sale ($10,800) is in a near-perfect situation, and I want to eat that chalk.
The Dodgers have jumped up to 5th in wRC+ vs. LHP since August 1st since they’ve been healthy again. That doesn’t make me feel any better at all regarding a possible fade (if I’m playing one lineup), but I’m going to hope for the best and look for another stack on this massive slate – mostly due to the price of it.
I can’t argue if you want to play the Dodgers and try to get Sale in – or play them without him and hope he stinks, but picking out your favorite power one-offs or using a mini stack might be the way to go if you’re paying up at pitcher. If I’m prioritizing LAD hitters, let me get the elite lefties – Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.
Maybe, just maybe we’ll continue to see the good Detmers. Our Top Stacks tool has the Dodgers projected at the highest pOWN% on both sites, and they’re top 2 in Opto%.
PIVOT STACKS
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