MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, July 24th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got an 8-game slate with an earlier than normal 6:40 PM ET start time. Pitching is pretty loaded at the top end of the salary range, which always makes for complicated decisions when deciding on which stacks to prioritize. It is worth noting that the top end of the range does not exceed $10,000 on either site (I am excluding $11,000 Tyler Glasnow on FD, who is likely on a limited pitch count in his first start off the IL.) Fitting in the top stacks with elite pitching is slightly easier than it should be for this reason.
Let’s break down some of the top options.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, July 24th
CHALKY STACK
Orioles at Edward Cabrera
The Orioles have been one of the best offenses in baseball all season long. They rank second in the league in wRC+ and wOBA (behind only the Dodgers) and lead the league in ISO.
The Orioles get a matchup against Edward Cabrera and the Miami Marlins. Cabrera has been lit up for a 7.36 ERA over 8 starts. He has shown solid strikeout ability (28.1% K), but he has walked far too many hitters (13.1% BB). He has also been hit extremely hard, allowing a massive 13.6% barrel rate and 47.7% hard contact rate. He has given up 2.45 HR/9 despite making 5 of his starts in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark.
Cabrera is the owner of some pretty extreme splits, as lefties have absolutely dominated him with 23.5% barrels and a .333 ISO. The bad news for Cabrera is that the Orioles project to roll out six lefties in their lineup today. This is a very bad spot for Cabrera and a very good one for a ceiling performance from the Orioles’ elite offense.
Given the Orioles’ status as the most powerful offense in baseball, we can expect some gaudy numbers if we dig a little deeper. They do not disappoint:
Gunnar Henderson – .308 ISO, 14.9% barrel rate
Adley Rutschman – .146 ISO, 8.3% barrel rate
Anthony Santander – .298 ISO, 11.9% barrel rate
Ryan O’Hearn – .207 ISO, 8.3% barrel rate
Jordan Westburg – .223 ISO, 11.0% barrel rate
Colton Cowser – .216 ISO, 13.3% barrel rate
Ryan Mountcastle – .163 ISO, 9.5% barrel rate
Cedric Mullins – .194 ISO, 5.7% barrel rate
Ramon Urias – .167 ISO, 6.7% barrel rate
Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander immediately jump off the page as elite options, and they both happen to be taking their swings from the left side today against Cabrera.
Adley Rutschman does not have the results in the power department from the left side this season, but that 8.3% barrel rate is a healthy mark that should mean there is more power production coming.
Ryan O’Hearn and Colton Cowser have ridiculous numbers for their price tags as lefties in this matchup. Both are under $4,000 on DK and under $3,000 on FD. They represent two of the best value options on the entire slate. Cedric Mullins joins them as a lefty in the value tier, although his production may be due for some regression given the lackluster barrel rate.
Every single hitter in the lineup is in play, making it fairly easy to differentiate an O’s stack. For example, shortstop is an absolutely loaded position, so I don’t think you would be crazy to fade the top option in the stack (Gunnar Henderson) and go with another elite option (like Bobby Witt Jr.).
The Orioles are projected to be the most popular stack on the slate at just under 15%, but the depth of the lineup makes them the top option in any format.
PIVOT STACKS
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