MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, July 3rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got an 11-game slate for Wednesday that has everything you could possibly want. There is pitching to spend on, pitching to punt with, and a Coors Field game. We have some tough decisions to make when it comes to allocating our available salary cap dollars.
Let’s jump in and discuss which stacks to prioritize.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, July 3rd
CHALK STACK
Brewers at Dakota Hudson
The Brewers were disappointing yesterday in the second game of their Coors Field series, as they managed to plate just four runs. They find themselves in an even better position against Dakota Hudson and the bad Rockies bullpen. Hudson owns a 5.84 ERA through 16 starts, and he has walked 11.7% of hitters and struck out just 12.0%. His lone skill is the ability to generate ground balls at an above-average rate (52.9%).
The Brewers are a ground-ball-heavy team on their own, so that does produce some cause for concern. However, there should be plenty of traffic on the bases given the elevated walk rate and massive 83.1% contact rate of Hudson. The Brewers also rank second in the majors with 120 stolen bases, which adds to their DFS appeal.
Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins lead the Brewers in fly ball rate and barrel rate against RH pitching, so they would be my top two targets in the lineup.
Christian Yelich and William Contreras both have elite on-base skills and above average power against righties. Their price tags are a bit prohibitive on DK, but they possess elite upside, given their context.
Brice Turang also has solid on-base skills, and his 28 stolen bases rank 2nd in the entire league.
Garrett Mitchell recently returned from a lengthy injury rehab. He is underpriced for his power/speed skillset which should play particularly well in Coors Field.
Joey Ortiz and Jackson Chourio both possess above average power despite the likelihood they are buried in the batting order. Chourio is much cheaper than Ortiz on DK, but they are similarly priced on FD.
The Brewers have been a top-5 offense against RHP this season, according to wRC+ and wOBA. Their mediocre power is offset by elite contact and speed.
The Rockies bullpen owns the highest SIERA (4.50) in the league. They have struck out the fewest batters (18.1%) in the league and walked the 4th-most (10.9%).
The Brewers are the only stack projected for double-digit ownership on the whole slate, so they can certainly be faded with so many options. They do possess the most upside with the highest implied run total. But as we saw yesterday, teams in great spots disappoint all the time in the game of baseball.
Officially, I would look for pivots in single-entry and small-field tournaments while playing them above the field’s pOWN% in multi-entry contests.
PIVOT STACKS
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