MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, June 19th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got an 8-game main slate on Wednesday evening. The Dodgers are back in Coors Field, and we have stronger pitching options than we had on Tuesday’s slate. Gerrit Cole is expected to make his 2024 debut for the Yankees, and Hunter Brown is an obvious choice to save some salary at pitcher in an elite matchup with the White Sox.
Let’s discuss some of the top stacking options.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, June 19th
TOP STACK
Dodgers at Ryan Feltner
The Dodgers have combined for 20 runs in the first 2 games of their series in Coors Field, and there is really no reason to expect them to slow down. They get a matchup against Ryan Feltner, who owns a 5.71 ERA and a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate. He has actually done a decent job of limiting hard contact (38.3%) and barrels (7%), but a high contact rate (78.6%) can always be troublesome in Coors Field.
Shohei Ohtani is having another incredible season, as he leads the league with a .467 wOBA versus RHP and ranks 2nd in wRC+. He went 5-for-11 with 2 doubles and a home run in the first 2 games of the series.
Freddie Freeman (13.1%), Teoscar Hernandez (14.2%), and Andy Pages (12.1%) all own double-digit barrel rates against RHP.
Will Smith (.166) and Jason Heyward (.188) both own an ISO above the league average versus RHP.
The value bats that round out the lineup, like Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, and Cavan Biggio, are all in play given their context.
The Colorado bullpen is also the worst in baseball. They own the highest ERA (6.00), the lowest strikeout rate (18.1%), and 3rd-highest walk rate (11.2%). They have surrendered 13 runs in 6.1 innings over these last 2 games.
The Dodgers will be popular, as they currently project for nearly 14% ownership on DK and above 15% on FD, but their upside is unmatched. I would be hesitant to use them with a chalky pitcher like Cole Ragans or Hunter Brown, or I would at least have a clear differentiation strategy in the remainder of the lineup. The Dodgers’ high salaries and the variance of baseball make them fadeable in single-entry and small-field tournaments, where ownership is likely to condense around them.
PIVOT STACKS
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