MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, June 5th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a 9-game main slate for MLB DFS on Wednesday. Coors Field is off the main slate for the first time this week, but we do have a bit of Wrigley wind again. And this time, there is no rain to be concerned about.
The top tier of pitching is also strong again, although not quite as strong as the last two days. Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert both have plus matchups and will be worth allocating significant salary dollars to.
Let’s discuss which bats we should be targeting.
All stats cited are for the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, June 5th
CHALKY STACKS
Cubs vs. Erick Fedde
Mariners at Joey Estes
The Cubs were held down by Chris Flexen yesterday before a rain delay knocked him out of the game after the 5th inning. The bats awoke after the delay to tag the White Sox bullpen for 6 runs over the remaining 3 innings.
The Cubs get a tougher matchup today against Erick Fedde, who has returned from a stint in Korea to be an above average pitcher this season. Fedde owns a 3.12 ERA through his first 12 starts, and it is backed up by a 3.78 SIERA and 3.43 xERA. The strikeouts (22.8%) and walks (7.6%) are both around the league average. Fedde has done a decent job of limiting power as well, with a solid 47.5% ground-ball rate, 35.7% hard-hit rate, and 7% barrel rate. Without the Wrigley wind, this would not be a standout spot for the Cubs offense.
However, we have to talk about the hitting conditions at Wrigley Field. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s, with winds blowing out to right field around 11 mph. Per WeatherEdge, 170 games at Wrigley Field with similar weather conditions have seen a 52% increase in home runs and a 29% boost in runs.
Add in the fact that Fedde has had extreme troubles with left-handed power at previous points in his career, and this becomes a much more attractive spot for Cubs bats.
Cody Bellinger is one of the top options on the slate, given his 11.1% barrel rate and 46.5% fly balls against righties. Those numbers have translated to an elite .236 ISO when facing RHP.
Mike Tauchman should hit leadoff, and he is enjoying an excellent season. His .352 wOBA against righties leads the team, and it is backed up by a 9.1% barrel rate and 33.3% fly balls.
Ian Happ has started to heat up in recent weeks after a rough start to his season. He is up to a .164 ISO versus righties, and his 12.9% barrel rate leads the team.
Rookie Pete-Crow Armstrong is known more for defense and speed over his bat at this point, but the potential is there for one of the best prospects in baseball. He is worth rostering at value price tags.
The lefties get the biggest bumps, given the wind playing into their pull-side power and the historical splits of Fedde, but they shouldn’t be the only consideration. Righties Seiya Suzuki and Christopher Morel both have double-digit barrel rates and fly balls around 30% against same-handed pitchers.
The White Sox bullpen has also been one of the worst in baseball.
The Cubs project for the highest OWN%, around 11% on both sites. Their OPTO% lags behind their popularity, but the upside that comes with the unique weather conditions outweighs the pOWN% for me.
The Mariners get a matchup with Oakland righty Joey Estes. The rookie has a gaudy 6.10 ERA, but he has actually pitched much better than that (at least to right-handed batters). He owns a 3.46 xERA, although his 4.33 SIERA is a bit behind that. Estes has posted 24% strikeouts and 6.9% walks, both very solid marks. He has allowed a few too many hard hits (45%), but he has done a decent job keeping the ball off the barrel (6.7%). His 15% ground-ball rate would be much more problematic if he pitched in a better park for home runs. That said, his 6.3% HR/FB is likely to regress no matter where he is pitching.
Lefties have been a serious problem for Estes. They have touched him up for a .346 ISO and 11.8% barrel rate on 41.2% fly balls.
Cal Raleigh jumps off the page with his 14% barrel rate against righties.
Josh Rojas (.354 wOBA) and Dominic Canzone (.262 ISO) each lead the team in a significant category against righties.
Luke Raley owns a healthy .181 ISO and 8.3% barrel rate versus RHP. His 53% ground-ball rate should be helped out by the fly-ball profile of Estes.
J.P. Crawford is having a down season, but he is worth considering if he leads off again.
You can play Julio Rodriguez in any matchup, but it sure has been a struggle for him so far this season.
The Mariners are projecting as the 2nd-highest owned team on both sites. They have very friendly price tags on both sites that will allow you to spend up to the top tier for pitching. The Mariners’ OPTO% varies by site, leading their OWN% on DK at 14% but falling behind on FD at just 7%.
PIVOT STACK
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