MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 29th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have 7-game main slates on both sites for our Wednesday MLB DFS action. The slate overview looks very similar to yesterday, with a few less games and a few less pitching options. There are some high-upside pitching options at the top of the salary range, and Justin Verlander is a little bit cheaper in an upside matchup. The main difference among pitchers is the cheap options don’t look as strong as yesterday, so we may have to look elsewhere for value.
Let’s discuss the top offenses to target.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, May 29th
CHALK STACK
Blue Jays at Chris Flexen
The Blue Jays were projected to be chalk yesterday, but a late start due to the weather certainly played a role in their actual ownership to some degree. The MLB weather is all clear today, and the Jays’ attractive salaries may be even more enticing since we do not have the strong value at pitcher, unless you are into Logan Allen in Coors or Bryse Wilson against the Cubs.
Toronto will get a third-consecutive matchup against a below-average pitcher from the White Sox, as Chris Flexen gets the assignment. Flexen owns a 5.69 ERA in 49 innings (9 starts) this season. Estimators have been a little more kind, as he owns a 4.71 SIERA and 4.59 xERA, but he is undoubtedly worse than a league-average pitcher. He has managed just 17.1% strikeouts and has allowed 1.47 HR/9 with an 8.3% barrel rate.
The Blue Jays are right around a league-average offense (101 wRC+), and they have been a little more prone to contact (19.2% strikeout rate) than power (.142 ISO).
The names among the Blue Jays offensive leaders this season may not be the ones you would expect. Catcher Danny Jansen has been their best hitter, with a .319 ISO and .409 wOBA versus RHP this season. Davis Schneider should hit leadoff again, and he owns a strong .182 ISO and .347 wOBA against RHP.
Flexen’s biggest struggle this season has been lefty power, and Daulton Varsho is basically the Jays only threat in that department, with a solid .277 ISO versus RHP.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have been solid hitters, but they are primary culprits for the Jays’ dip in power this season.
Justin Turner has been excellent against LHP this season, but he has struggled against RHP.
George Springer has struggled against everyone to start the season, but he has been hot lately. He homered in the first game of the series, and he reached base 5 times yesterday.
With no weather concerns today and the Jays grading out as the top value stack of the day, I feel their ownership could be a much bigger issue than yesterday. Projected ownership currently has them above 16% on both sites.
You might consider fading the chalky Justin Verlander in Jays stacks or differentiating with some bottom-of-the-order bats. At the very least, be mindful of pOWN% with your secondary stack or one-offs when building around Blue Jays.
COORS FIELD STACK
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