MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/9/2022
We have a 5-game main slate on DraftKings and a 6-game main on FanDuel as they are including WSH/MIA which means their slate locks at 6:40pm EST compared to 7:10pm EST on DK.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We only have a low chance of a brief rain delay for BAL/KCR but even that is looking unlikely so no rain to worry about today!
PIT/ATL will see the most wind with ~10mph out to center while BOS/LAA, OAK/CLE, NYY/MIN and BAL/KCR all see slightly less winds out. WSH/MIA is in a dome for the FD slate.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for NYY/MIN are +33.4% while total runs for NYY/MIN are +4.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Mike Trout is the biggest question of the day as his groin injury is a day-to-day thing so he could be back today or need a week it’s hard to tell when guys don’t immediately go on the IL. The Angels did call up OF Dillon Thomas which could signal Trout might need more time – UPDATE: Trout is OUT, Lagares hitting leadoff. Enrique Hernandez did go on the IL yesterday so Christian Arroyo will hit leadoff and Devers is back in there after a rest day yesterday while Bogaerts and Story are getting rest days today. Travis d’Arnaud is back at C after missing a couple games and Jesus Sanchez is back after missing a game with upper back tightness.
It seems like every time they play the Braves are a top stack and today is no exception at home against Brubaker who has shown flashes of decency but overall he is not a great pitcher with just two games over 4 strikeouts in his last eight starts. The Braves also have the best hitting weather with 10+ mph winds blowing out to center and 80 degree heat so stack away. The Guardians and Yankees are my next favorite stacks for cash games and for GPP’s I think BAL & KCR are a couple low-owned stacks that could both put up some runs today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel we see a lot of Royals as top value plays and I don’t mind using a couple of them depending on your positional needs. The first guy I’m locking in though is Matt Olson for just $3,600 and pretty much every other Braves hitter is in play even Michael Harris likely hitting 9th for just $2,200. Gleyber Torres ($3,000) and Josh Donaldson ($2,900) are solid cheap options and are my favorite Yankees for the price and for cheap Guardians exposure I like the top two guys in their order in Myles Straw ($2,900) and Steven Kwan ($2,600) who make fitting in Jose Ramirez ($4,500) much easier. More FD bats I like today include Ramon Laureano ($2,800), Aaron Hicks ($2,600), Trey Mancini ($3,100), and Tyler Nevin ($2,300).
Looking at DraftKings we again see a lot of Royals projecting as top p/$ plays especially Carlos Santana for $2,200 who had four hits yesterday and will really help you fit in high-priced bats and pitching. Ryan Mountcastle is also looking like a top value play at just $3,100 with the platoon advantage against Bubic and in the OF Aaron Hicks ($2,600) is a nice way to get some cheap Yankees exposure. Matt Olson ($5,300) is expensive but still cheaper than Acuna, Swanson, and Riley so he’s my favorite Braves bat for the price and for cheap exposure I don’t mind using Adam Duvall ($3,500) and Michael Harris ($2,600). Other value bats on DK to consider include Oscar Gonzalez ($2,200), Steven Kwan ($3,100), Andrew Benintendi ($3,500), Anthony Santander ($3,600), and Tyler Nevin ($2,300).
Gerrit Cole is the clear SP1 on both sites which makes Max Fried a top GPP option with a nice matchup against the Pirates and likely low ownership with so much going to Cole on the small slate. Ohtani and Pivetta are also pretty strong GPP plays and on FD Stephen Strasburg is probably the cheapest we’ll see him this season at $8,200 and is worth using in some lineups. My favorite value pitcher is Konnor Pilkington especially as an SP2 on DK for $7,100 as he has a great matchup with Oakland and is coming off a 5 IP / 0 ER / 8 K outing last start.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn