MLB DFS Projections Primer: Monday, September 14th
MLB daily fantasy sports are back tonight for another exciting slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we provide a trio of top picks based on our DFS projections and rankings that will help you identify some top pitching targets. Utilizing advanced stats from our PlateIQ tool, let’s take a look at some high potential options.
Today’s PlateQ Top DFS Pitchers
Trevor Bauer
DraftKings Salary: $10,800
FanDuel Salary: (not on slate)
Yahoo Salary: (not on slate)
Overall PlateIQ Score: 68.81
PlateIQ K Score: 77.518111111111
PlateIQ Contact Score: 45.9980310625
PlateIQ Recent Form: 56.40911768
DraftKings DFS Projection: 23.05
Opponent: PIT
We have a weird set of slates in Major League Baseball today. For example, Bauer is only available on the DK slate, and his game against Pittsburgh is one of three on the DK slate that are only scheduled for seven innings due to it being a doubleheader. But even seven innings of Bauer (we hope) is going to be worth paying $10,800 for in this matchup against Pittsburgh.
This Pirates team against RHP in 2020 is about as bad as it gets. For one, they rank dead last in this split in all of wRC+ (61), wOBA (.262), and ISO (.124). And it’s not like they are particularly close to the rest of the pack in those metrics either. For example, the team that ranks 29th in wOBA against RHP this season are the Rangers at .285. Yikes Pirates!
And while Pittsburgh may not be one of the most strikeout friendly matchups out there (their 24.1% K% against RHP is ‘just’ the 14th highest in the league), Bauer usually has no problems generating those on his own. His 36% K% in 2020 is easily the highest on this DK main slate, with Dinelson Lamet coming in next at 32.9%.
Even in a game that is likely to be two innings short, I still think Bauer has the highest ceiling on the slate (he certainly has the best floor). Considering that the other ace on this slate (Kershaw) has only completed seven innings twice all season, I don’t feel like I’m missing out on much by this game being shortened. And hey, it could be easier for Bauer to qualify for the complete game (or CGSO) bonus since the game is shorter!
Jesus Luzardo
DraftKings Salary: $8,300
FanDuel Salary: (not on slate)
Yahoo Salary: (not on slate)
Overall PlateIQ Score: 66.97
PlateIQ K Score: 72.786555555556
PlateIQ Contact Score: 48.531621625
PlateIQ Recent Form: 52.699915061111
DraftKings DFS Projection: 16.73
Opponent: SEA
Luzardo, too, is only available on the DK slate. And his game against Seattle is also scheduled for only seven innings. I told ya…it’s a weird baseball day.
The Mariners are similarly bad against LHP as the Pirates are against RHP (discussed above). In this split in 2020, the Mariners have a 69 wRC+ (ranked 28th), .267 wOBA (ranked dead last), and a .143 ISO (ranked 24th). They also have a 25.4% K% in this split, which is the fifth highest in the league.
Luzardo himself has posted a pretty solid line in his first season as a major league starter:
7 starts (2 relief appearances), 45.1 IP, 23.9% K%, 12.3% SwStr%, 7.4% BB%, 3.97 ERA, 4.08 SIERA, 46% GB%, 27.4% FB%, 29.1% Hard%
He has been utterly dominant against lefties this season (.235 wOBA and .093 ISO in just 45 plate appearances), so he shouldn’t have much of a problem with the few of those he will see today. As for the righties in the projected lineup, they are mostly non-threatening and quite prone to strikeouts (five of them have strikeout rates at 25% or higher against LHP since the start of 2019).
If you are looking for a pairing with Bauer on DK, I think Luzardo is your guy. He will be a fixture in my cash game build, and how you handle him in tournaments will come down to just how high the Projected Ownership gets on him.
Clayton Kershaw
DraftKings Salary: $10,400
FanDuel Salary: $10,600
Yahoo Salary: $52
Overall PlateIQ Score: 67.65
PlateIQ K Score: 74.653333333333
PlateIQ Contact Score: 44.46362635
PlateIQ Recent Form: 53.179826755
DraftKings DFS Projection: 15.84
Opponent: SDP
I am putting Kershaw here—strictly because he’s Kershaw—but I never feel good about recommending a lefty against this Padres lineup. On top of names like Machado and Tatis, the Padres could be getting Tommy Pham in the lineup tonight too.
But let’s get back to Kershaw. He has seen the strikeout rate tick up to 28.2% this season (it was 26.8% in 2019 and 23.8% in 2018). Perhaps even better is the fact that his groundball rate has skyrocketed up to 57.8% this season. Not only is that the highest of his career, but his second best season in that metric was a 51.8% GB% way back in 2014.
Those groundballs could be his best route to neutralizing these powerful Padres righties. And if he can mix in a strikeout per inning or so, he might be able to contend for highest raw score on the slate.
However, with the Dodgers being content to keep him below 100 pitches, Kershaw is going to have to be borderline perfect to pay off this high of a price tag. Luckily, he’s Kershaw, so that is always in play for him. And two, there aren’t many options to consider on these medium-sized (on DK) or small (on FD and Yahoo) slates.
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