MLB DFS Projections Primer: Monday, September 7th
MLB daily fantasy sports are back tonight for another exciting slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we provide a trio of top picks based on our MLB DFS projections and rankings that will help you identify some top pitching targets. Utilizing advanced stats from our PlateIQ tool, let’s take a look at some high potential options.
Today’s PlateQ Top DFS Pitchers
Max Scherzer
DraftKings Salary: $10,400
FanDuel Salary: $11,000
Yahoo Salary: $52
Overall PlateIQ Score: 72.07
PlateIQ K Score: 81.386
PlateIQ Contact Score: 47.6265355375
PlateIQ Recent Form: 54.29538228
DraftKings DFS Projection: 19.86
Opponent: TBR
Even though Scherzer’s strikeout rate has ticked down a bit in 2020, he is still clearly the top arm on this Monday slate. And while a lot of that has to do with the aforementioned strikeouts, he also has the highest innings expectation tonight. For example, in four of his last five starts, he has topped 105 pitches.
But back to the thing we care most about in DFS: the strikeouts.
In 2019, Scherzer 30.9% of lefties but a massive 38.8% of righties. The end result was a 35.1% K% that was third in the entire league amongst qualified pitchers.
Through eight starts in 2020, his strikeout rate is down to ‘just’ 32.5% (31.3% vs. lefties; 33.7% vs. righties). That still has him in the ‘elite’ category and within the Top 10 in the league.
While he will have to work around some powerful Rays lefties (Meadows; Lowe)—and may even give up a solo home run or two—Scherzer is easily the top option on this slate if you have the funds to pay for him.
Kevin Gausman
DraftKings Salary: $6,100
FanDuel Salary: $7,700
Yahoo Salary: $39
Overall PlateIQ Score: 60.88
PlateIQ K Score: 64.610888888889
PlateIQ Contact Score: 38.981039325
PlateIQ Recent Form: 55.239929485
DraftKings DFS Projection: 13.29
Opponent: ARI
If you are in need of some salary relief at pitcher in order to load up on your bats, look no further than Gausman. Tell me if you can spot a trend here in his strikeout rate from the past three seasons.
19.1% > 25.3% > 31%
Your eyes are not deceiving you. Through seven starts (and one relief appearance) in 2020, Gausman has seen the strikeout rate climb all the way up to 31%. Not only is that the third highest on Monday night’s slate, but it is right on the cusp being Top 10 in the league.
And the best part? He is just the eighth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and the cheapest pitcher on the entire slate on DraftKings. So if you are looking for a cheap pitcher with plenty of upside, Gausman is your guy.
Dinelson Lamet
DraftKings Salary: $8,800
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Yahoo Salary: $56
Overall PlateIQ Score: 66.47
PlateIQ K Score: 77.096444444444
PlateIQ Contact Score: 35.3355921375
PlateIQ Recent Form: 52.345850715
DraftKings DFS Projection: 15.86
Opponent: COL
Lamet finds himself being the best option if you don’t quite have the funds for Scherzer but are able to spend a little more than Gausman. His strikeout rate in 2020 (31.7%) also happens to fall right in between those two’s strikeout rates as well.
The main drawback with Lamet is that the Padres don’t seem all that interested in getting his pitch count up. In his eight starts this season, he has crossed the 90-pitch threshold exactly three times, topping out at 97.
While that may cap his upside a little bit, it probably also leads to Scherzer and Gausman being more popular options. Not only does Lamet get to face this Rockies team outside of Coors Field, but it is one that has three bats in the projected lineup with a strikeout rate above 26% dating back to the start of last season.