MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, June 12th
MLB DFS is complex, which is why it helps to have data-driven tools at your disposal. That’s where we come in.
With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we can narrow down some of the stacks that are worth targeting for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Our Top Stacks tool is powered by our MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ.
Also, don’t forget to check out our MLB weather page and MLB starting lineups leading up to lock. The last thing you want to do is stack up some teams that may get their game postponed or roster players who aren’t in the confirmed lineup.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, June 12th
Opto% Stack
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox (Davis Martin)
The Astros rate as one of the top overall stacks in our MLB DFS projections, as they have the highest Opto% and stack rating, plus the 2nd-best Value%. Their 4.55 implied run total doesn’t jump off the page at first glance, but context is everything, as it is still one of the highest on this small slate. They draw a dream matchup against Davis Martin and a soft White Sox bullpen. Martin is a low-strikeout righty who has shown some reverse-splits tendencies when it comes to batted balls. Against righties, his only plus is a low walk rate, which sets up well for a contact-heavy Astros lineup that doesn’t have much swing-and-miss in it.
Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes stand out as key pieces, as they’re the only Astros who actually elevate the ball, which is vital against someone like Martin who is more prone to ground balls. You’re not rostering the Astros because they’re a high-ceiling offense in general, but rather because this is a gettable matchup and they fit the slate dynamics well. On a small slate, we may not need a 10-run explosion to win. So as much as you may not like using the Astros, this is one of the rare spots where they make a lot of DFS sense.
Looking for more MLB DFS analysis? Check out CheeseIsgood’s Million Dollar Musings for the most in-depth breakdown in the industry.
Opto% Stack
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
The Yankees are set up as one of the top DFS stacks, as they have the highest implied run total on the slate at 4.94 runs. They also rank 4th in Opto%, 5th in stack rating, and 6th in Value% in our projections. While Seth Lugo is a solid real-life pitcher, his 16.9% strikeout rate and .223 ISO allowed to lefties this season present serious red flags against this potent lineup.
The Yankees bring lefty power to the table in bulk, with five lefties – Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Trent Grisham, and Austin Wells – each owning an ISO above .180 and a barrel rate over 10% vs. RHP this season. Add Aaron Judge to the mix, and Lugo is going to be at constant risk of allowing power. The challenge is identifying which lefty bat breaks the slate, so that uncertainty makes the full stack more appealing than picking out one-offs. With pricing obviously being a factor, it’s even viable to build Yankees stacks without Judge to maximize upside while preserving salary flexibility.
Top Leverage Stacks
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