MLB First Look: Monday, July 28th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
What’s up Grinders, I hope everyone had a great weekend. We have a small slate of games on tap on Monday and while there is a single day game, we will exclude it from the analysis as most sites do not have any players from that game listed in their player pool. As we near the end of July, we get closer and closer to the big MLB championships across the industry. I have still yet to punch my ticket, but will certainly keep trying.
Monday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:10 PM | San Diego | Atlanta | Lane (0-0) – 0.00 ERA | Santana (9-6) – 3.87 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Toronto | Boston | Dickey (8-10) – 4.04 ERA | Buchholz (5-6) – 5.50 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Arizona | Cincinnati | Anderson (6-4) – 3.58 ERA | Bailey (8-5) – 4.22 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Philadelphia | N.Y. Mets | Burnett (6-9) – 3.86 ERA | Colon (9-8) – 4.03 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Milwaukee | Tampa Bay | Lohse (11-4) – 3.07 ERA | Odorizzi (6-8) – 3.97 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Washington | Miami | Zimmermann (6-5) – 3.20 ERA | Eovaldi (5-6) – 4.20 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Colorado | Chi. Cubs | Flande (0-2) – 7.20 ERA | Wada (0-1) – 5.00 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Texas | Phelps (5-4) – 3.77 ERA | Darvish (9-6) – 2.92 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Oakland | Houston | Chavez (8-6) – 3.14 ERA | Oberholtzer (2-7) – 4.32 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Worley (3-1) – 3.10 ERA | Bumgarner (12-7) – 3.19 ERA |
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Monday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
At first glance, here are the pitchers that I like:
Yu Darvish – Monday night’s matchup against the Yankees will be in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, but the ballpark has not had any impact on Darvish’s performance this season. He’s sporting a 2.49 ERA at home with 80 K’s over 65 innings of work. He’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball and the Yankees’ lineup isn’t nearly as intimidating as it has been in year’s past.
Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann travels to Miami to take on the Marlins for the 4th time this season. The Marlins have hit Zimmermann well in two of those outings, but both were in Nationals Park. Marlins Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball and Zimmermann’s price tag is depressed thanks to his lackluster month of July.
Bartolo Colon – Colon is an interesting character. He rarely tops 90 MPH on the radar and he never touches first base when he’s up to bat. What Colon does do is get outs, especially at home where he has posted a 2.81 ERA while striking out 52 batters over 57 innings. He has a favorable matchup against the Phillies and offers a cheaper alternative if you don’t want to pay up for Darvish.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Toronto Blue Jays – In 3 starts against the Blue Jays this season, Clay Buchholz has given up 21 hits, 9 walks, and has posted an ERA of 5.40. He’s not the same pitcher that he was during the first half of last season as evidenced by his subpar numbers across the board. The Blue Jays hit better at home, but should be able to swing the bats well against a familiar opponent in Buchholz.
Oakland A’s – The A’s are projected to be the highest scoring team of the night. They are facing Brett Oberholtzer in Houston. In 3 starts against the A’s this season, Oberholtzer has posted a 4.96 ERA while giving up a .314 batting average. The A’s have quite a few bats in their lineup that feast on LH pitching.
3) wOBA vs. BvP Play of the Day
Round 1 (Friday, July 25th): Jose Reyes (BvP) = 1 FD point vs. Stephen Vogt (wOBA) = 2.5 FD points
Scoreboard: wOBA 1 – BvP 0
Adrian Beltre (wOBA Play of the Day) – Beltre has shown nice power against RH pitching this season. He is sporting a .375 wOBA against RH pitching and gets to face David Phelps who is a reverse splits pitcher. Phelps has given up a .341 wOBA to RH hitters this season which makes Beltre my top wOBA play of the day.
Giancarlo Stanton (BvP Play of the Day) – There were few BvP options for Monday, so I went with Stanton to match the talent level of Beltre. Stanton has faced Jordan Zimmermann 24 times in his career and has 7 hits off of him including 3 HR’s. He’s also drawn 4 walks in those plate appearances.
4) Spend up on Pitching Monday
Not only is Monday night a short slate, but we don’t have any games in the more hitter-friendly ballparks such as Coors Field or the Rogers Centre. The highest total set for Monday’s games is only 8.5 runs and 6 of the 9 games have totals set at less than 8 runs. With a potentially low scoring night in baseball, it may be a night to spend up on your starting pitchers. Target some cheap bats and take an ace or two.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
David Ortiz – Big Papi is my odds on favorite to homer tonight and I have some stats to back up the pick. First off, Ortiz has homered off of R.A. Dickey twice in his career in only 15 at bats. Second, Ortiz has 5 HR’s in his last 7 games. And last but not least, Dickey has already given up 19 HR’s this season and is giving up a HR in 12% of fly balls given up. All signs are a go for an Ortiz dong Monday night.