MLB First Look: Thursday, July 24th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:37 PM | Boston | Toronto | De La Rosa (3-2) – 2.64 ERA | Stroman (5-2) – 3.58 ERA |
| 1:05 PM | Texas | N.Y. Yankees | Lewis (6-7) – 6.37 ERA | McCarthy (4-10) – 4.63 ERA |
| 1:05 PM | San Francisco | Philadelphia | Hudson (8-6) – 2.78 ERA | Hamels (4-5) – 2.83 ERA |
| 3:35 PM | Houston | Oakland | Feldman (4-7) – 4.30 ERA | Samardzija (3-8) – 2.91 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Miami | Atlanta | Alvarez (6-5) – 2.64 ERA | Harang (9-6) – 3.36 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | San Diego | Chi. Cubs | Ross (8-10) – 2.70 ERA | Jackson (5-10) – 5.61 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | N.Y. Mets | Milwaukee | Gee (4-2) – 2.92 ERA | Garza (6-7) – 4.04 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Cleveland | Kansas City | Kluber (10-6) – 2.95 ERA | Duffy (5-10) – 2.66 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Chi. White Sox | Minnesota | Noesi (4-7) – 5.21 ERA | Hughes (10-6) – 4.06 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Detroit | L.A. Angels | Scherzer (11-3) – 3.34 ERA | Richards (11-2) – 2.47 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Baltimore | Seattle | Chen (10-3) – 4.21 ERA | Iwakuma (8-4) – 2.95 ERA |
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Thursday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
At first glance, here are the pitchers that I like for tomorrow’s slate of games:
- Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija is the easy route to take on Thursday. Not only does he have a great matchup against the Astros, but he’s by far the biggest favorite in terms of the Vegas line. Samardzija has a sub 3.00 ERA while averaging over 8 K’s per 9 innings and he’s facing the strikeout happy Astros.
- Matt Garza – Since the start of June, Garza has really pitched well. He’s posted an ERA just over 3.00 while holding batters under a .230 batting average. On Thursday he faces the Mets who are 24th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.
- Danny Duffy – Duffy is my high risk/high reward play of the night. He has a 2.66 ERA on the season, but his xFIP of 4.48 tells a much different story. Duffy’s been a little lucky with his .238 BABIP, but he has the ability to strike a lot of batters out and he’s facing an Indians lineup that struggles against LH pitching (primarily due to the fact that they have so many LH hitters in their lineup).
2) Two Offenses to Target
- New York Yankees – The Yankees are going to be a common theme throughout this article as they are far and away my favorite offense to target. Colby Lewis has been a gas can on the mound this season. He has a 6.72 ERA and has given up a .390 wOBA to his opponents. Stack the Yanks and thank me later.
- Oakland A’s – The A’s are also in a good spot on Thursday. They are facing Scott Feldman at home. Feldman hasn’t been terrible this season, but he’s certainly not something to write home about. The A’s are ranked 10th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and should have another big night offensively.
3) wOBA vs. BvP Play of the Day
I’ve typically given out my top hitter matchup each night in terms of handedness and have every once in a while thrown in a player with great BvP numbers. I thought it might be a cool feature to give one of each per night and keep track of which one ends up with more fantasy points. I’ll recap each night’s picks and keep score as well. Let the games begin!
- Brett Gardner (wOBA Play of the Day) – Gardner, along with the rest of the Yankees lineup, has a terrific matchup on Thursday. He’s facing Colby Lewis who has given up a .443 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Meanwhile, Gardner is sporting a .348 wOBA vs. RH pitching.
- Ryan Howard (BvP Play of the Day) – I chose Howard because he has great BvP numbers against Tim Hudson and he has the largest sample size of any batter/pitcher matchup. Howard is 22/67 with 10 HR’s off of Hudson in his career which equates to a 1.12 OPS.
4) Streaky Hitter Segment
- Jacoby Ellsbury – This segment has provided great plays in each of the last two nights so hopefully Ellsbury can keep the streak going. As mentioned above, the Yankee LH hitters have a terrific matchup against Colby Lewis. Ellsbury has been red hot of late as he’s gone 8/16 with 3 XBH’s and 3 SB’s over the last 7 days.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
- Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton has as much double-dong potential as any player in baseball. Stanton faces Aaron Harang who gave up 26 HR’s last season. While he’s only given up 8 HR’s this season, don’t be surprised to see Stanton make it 9 on Thursday as Stanton has already taken Harang deep once in his career.